G7 meeting today to release oil reserves

The global energy system has entered a phase of intense tension. On March 9, 2026, the finance ministers of the G7 are holding an emergency meeting to discuss the coordinated release of 300–400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, a move that could become the largest in the history of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The decision comes after a severe supply shock linked to the escalating military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel. Over the weekend, Brent Crude briefly approached $120 before falling back to around $103 following reports of a potential G7 intervention. If confirmed, the release would represent up to 35% of the IEA’s strategic reserves, signaling the seriousness of the current crisis.

Under IEA rules, member countries must maintain oil reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. Altogether, the 32 member economies hold approximately 1.24 billion barrels of emergency stockpiles. Among G7 members, the United States holds around 415 million barrels in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve and is the leading advocate of the proposed release. Japan holds roughly 285 million barrels, a crucial pillar for energy stability in East Asia. Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy maintain reserves equivalent to about 90 days of imports. Canada represents a unique case: rather than relying primarily on strategic stockpiles, it possesses vast natural oil reserves, among the largest in the world. Ottawa is therefore emerging as a key player in the crisis, with plans to increase production by up to 750,000 barrels per day in order to offset potential losses of supply from the Middle East.

The most critical concern involves the security of the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Any disruption, even temporary, could remove millions of barrels per day from global markets. Production cuts announced by Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have already added pressure to the market, fueling strong speculative activity in energy trading.

A coordinated release of strategic reserves could initially cool the market by easing supply concerns and breaking the speculative momentum driving prices upward. However, analysts warn that the effect may prove temporary. Four hundred million barrels correspond to roughly four days of global consumption, and if the conflict continues or if the Strait of Hormuz were to close, the market could quickly return to deficit conditions, potentially pushing oil prices toward $130–$150 per barrel. Oil prices consistently above $100 would have immediate repercussions for transportation costs, energy prices, and global logistics chains, potentially triggering a new wave of inflation, particularly in Europe and across emerging markets.

The crisis may also accelerate a broader geopolitical shift in energy markets. Countries such as Canada, with vast reserves and stable production, could emerge as key beneficiaries, alongside the United States, which remains one of the world’s largest producers. If Canadian output were to increase by the projected 750,000 barrels per day, the country could become the most reliable supplier for Western economies. At the same time, sustained price volatility and geopolitical instability could accelerate investments in renewable energy, push governments toward faster electrification of transportation, and reinforce energy security policies across Europe and Asia. A renewed oil shock could also affect global financial markets, impacting equities, the currencies of energy-importing nations, and energy sector stocks, raising the risk of broader economic slowdowns.

Ultimately, the key point is that a strategic reserve release by the G7 may stabilize markets in the short term but does not resolve the underlying structural risk. Should the conflict in the Middle East intensify or the Strait of Hormuz become blocked, the world could face the most severe energy crisis since the mid-2000s.

Klevis Gjoka