US tariffs put pressure on economy dampening global growth
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US President Donald Trump will announce today, April 2nd, a new tariff package that will come into effect immediately. Today has been dubbed by the American tycoon as "Liberation Day," referring to the fact that the new tariff package would be a response to the alleged economic and regulatory barriers that US companies face when trading abroad.
Bloomberg's report on 15 trade partners
However, according to Bloomberg Economics economists, the tariffs will lead to a 28 percentage point increase in the average tariff rate in the United States, which could cause a 4% decline in GDP, along with an almost 2.5% increase in prices over the next two or three years. Bloomberg Economics' report examines the 15 trade partners with which the United States has the largest bilateral deficit and structures the analysis based on the three key factors that, according to Trump, hinder US exports: high tariff rates, additional trade barriers, and value-added taxes.
Trade uncertainty and growth forecasts
Meanwhile, the level of uncertainty regarding global trade policy reached an all-time high in March, especially due to the confusion caused by the announcement of other tariffs. According to analysts, this factor will significantly impact US industrial production, which could drop by 1.1%, as well as global production, which could decrease by nearly 1.7% by the second quarter of 2026. Although Trump has stated that the new tariffs will "liberate" the US economy, Bloomberg Economics models suggest that traders actually expect an increase in inflation coupled with a slowdown in growth.
Countries potentially affected by the new tariff package
According to predictions, China and the EU are likely to be included on the list of countries hit by the new tariffs, along with Canada, Mexico, and ASEAN countries — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. However, analysts do not believe that the deterioration of relations between Europe and the United States will lead to a rapprochement between Brussels and Beijing, even though European Commission President von der Leyen has recently softened her tone towards China.
Meanwhile, among the countries that could suffer the impact of the tariffs, despite not having particularly tense relations with the United States, is the UK — whose industrial sector related to chemicals and pharmaceuticals could be significantly damaged by the new US tariffs — and Italy, which analysts believe could suffer a backlash in several sectors: from industrial machinery, to pharmaceuticals, and even manufacturing.
Bloomberg's report on 15 trade partners
However, according to Bloomberg Economics economists, the tariffs will lead to a 28 percentage point increase in the average tariff rate in the United States, which could cause a 4% decline in GDP, along with an almost 2.5% increase in prices over the next two or three years. Bloomberg Economics' report examines the 15 trade partners with which the United States has the largest bilateral deficit and structures the analysis based on the three key factors that, according to Trump, hinder US exports: high tariff rates, additional trade barriers, and value-added taxes.
Trade uncertainty and growth forecasts
Meanwhile, the level of uncertainty regarding global trade policy reached an all-time high in March, especially due to the confusion caused by the announcement of other tariffs. According to analysts, this factor will significantly impact US industrial production, which could drop by 1.1%, as well as global production, which could decrease by nearly 1.7% by the second quarter of 2026. Although Trump has stated that the new tariffs will "liberate" the US economy, Bloomberg Economics models suggest that traders actually expect an increase in inflation coupled with a slowdown in growth.
Countries potentially affected by the new tariff package
According to predictions, China and the EU are likely to be included on the list of countries hit by the new tariffs, along with Canada, Mexico, and ASEAN countries — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. However, analysts do not believe that the deterioration of relations between Europe and the United States will lead to a rapprochement between Brussels and Beijing, even though European Commission President von der Leyen has recently softened her tone towards China.
Meanwhile, among the countries that could suffer the impact of the tariffs, despite not having particularly tense relations with the United States, is the UK — whose industrial sector related to chemicals and pharmaceuticals could be significantly damaged by the new US tariffs — and Italy, which analysts believe could suffer a backlash in several sectors: from industrial machinery, to pharmaceuticals, and even manufacturing.