Global economy: the Yankee world
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To understand what U.S. economy was, is, and will be in the Trump era, it's enough to look back at a bit of history. Let’s start in California, always known as the world’s largest "sub-national" economy, self-advertised with the slogan "…come to the richest state in the world…". This is propaganda; in reality, social inequalities are at astronomical levels here, and they echo everywhere.
In the U.S., economic and social differences are much more evident than in other countries because everything here is “colossal,” starting with its skyscrapers. In 2024, the global economy showed divergent trends from country to country. For example, in the third quarter of 2024, the U.S. was on a growth trend of +3.1%, while China, due to a crisis in its real estate sector, was facing a slowdown in domestic demand.
According to Goldman Sachs’ estimates, the U.S. economy will continue to grow in 2025, but at a rate of +2.5%, down from +2.8% in 2024. The Yankee people, as well as its politicians and economists, are full of contradictions and, in some ways, a bit naïve. The economic boom in the Confederation lasted almost uninterruptedly since the start of World War I, economically represented by a sharp increase in GDP thanks to numerous technological innovations over time, such as radio, telephone, refrigerators, air conditioning, etc. After the last world war, Americans had a positive influence on all nations globally, not only because they had defeated Nazi-fascism but also for their innate sense of personal freedom, entrepreneurial innovation, and a renewed zest for life, demonstrated by exporting rock music (which was real disruptive music derived from jazz and blues), and even jeans.
Now, things are different, and if we analyze the first quarter of 2025, it’s all turmoil. Fears about tariffs, for example, have led the largest U.S. importers to stockpile various goods before Trump’s return to the White House. As a result, warehouses are full, but purchases are stalled, leading to a sharp drop in the Atlanta Federal Reserve index. Some clouds are emerging over the U.S. economy, driven by uncertainty and stress generated by the first six weeks of Trump’s presidency: a real earthquake! Fears of a trade war and concerns about a potential American recession are shaking stock markets globally.
Monday, March 10, will be remembered as a "black day": European financial markets closed all in the red, Wall Street was deep in the red, also due to Tesla’s slump by -15%, as well as the decline of the “Magnificent 7” in tech, the drop of Bitcoin below $80,000 to the lowest levels since November 2024, and WTI oil at $66.03 per barrel, down 1.51%. European stock markets lost $279 billion, while the euro strengthened against the dollar to levels last seen in July 2024.
There is also a trade war with Canada, where, in response to Ontario imposing a 25% tariff on electricity entering the U.S., the U.S. government decided to add another 25% tariff, bringing it to 50% on all steel and aluminum entering the U.S. from Canada. This will continue until April 2, when strong tariff increases are also expected on cars coming into the U.S. from Canada.
Amid all this, the specter of a federal government shutdown reappears. U.S. and global investors are increasingly worried about the effects of Mr. Trump’s economic policies, fearing a slowdown or even a potential halt. However, as always, not all opinions on the current situation are in agreement.
Out of step with the others is Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council and Trump’s economic advisor, who has expressed full optimism about the U.S. economy. He publicly stated that the uncertainties surrounding the White House’s economic policies will be resolved by the first decade of April, and he also anticipates that GDP data for the first quarter of 2025 will be positive. The tariff measures are reportedly already showing their effectiveness in driving significant increases in production and job opportunities in the United States.
“I’m first.” This is the conviction of a people embodied today by their elected president: "Make America Great Again."
In the U.S., economic and social differences are much more evident than in other countries because everything here is “colossal,” starting with its skyscrapers. In 2024, the global economy showed divergent trends from country to country. For example, in the third quarter of 2024, the U.S. was on a growth trend of +3.1%, while China, due to a crisis in its real estate sector, was facing a slowdown in domestic demand.
According to Goldman Sachs’ estimates, the U.S. economy will continue to grow in 2025, but at a rate of +2.5%, down from +2.8% in 2024. The Yankee people, as well as its politicians and economists, are full of contradictions and, in some ways, a bit naïve. The economic boom in the Confederation lasted almost uninterruptedly since the start of World War I, economically represented by a sharp increase in GDP thanks to numerous technological innovations over time, such as radio, telephone, refrigerators, air conditioning, etc. After the last world war, Americans had a positive influence on all nations globally, not only because they had defeated Nazi-fascism but also for their innate sense of personal freedom, entrepreneurial innovation, and a renewed zest for life, demonstrated by exporting rock music (which was real disruptive music derived from jazz and blues), and even jeans.
Now, things are different, and if we analyze the first quarter of 2025, it’s all turmoil. Fears about tariffs, for example, have led the largest U.S. importers to stockpile various goods before Trump’s return to the White House. As a result, warehouses are full, but purchases are stalled, leading to a sharp drop in the Atlanta Federal Reserve index. Some clouds are emerging over the U.S. economy, driven by uncertainty and stress generated by the first six weeks of Trump’s presidency: a real earthquake! Fears of a trade war and concerns about a potential American recession are shaking stock markets globally.
Monday, March 10, will be remembered as a "black day": European financial markets closed all in the red, Wall Street was deep in the red, also due to Tesla’s slump by -15%, as well as the decline of the “Magnificent 7” in tech, the drop of Bitcoin below $80,000 to the lowest levels since November 2024, and WTI oil at $66.03 per barrel, down 1.51%. European stock markets lost $279 billion, while the euro strengthened against the dollar to levels last seen in July 2024.
There is also a trade war with Canada, where, in response to Ontario imposing a 25% tariff on electricity entering the U.S., the U.S. government decided to add another 25% tariff, bringing it to 50% on all steel and aluminum entering the U.S. from Canada. This will continue until April 2, when strong tariff increases are also expected on cars coming into the U.S. from Canada.
Amid all this, the specter of a federal government shutdown reappears. U.S. and global investors are increasingly worried about the effects of Mr. Trump’s economic policies, fearing a slowdown or even a potential halt. However, as always, not all opinions on the current situation are in agreement.
Out of step with the others is Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council and Trump’s economic advisor, who has expressed full optimism about the U.S. economy. He publicly stated that the uncertainties surrounding the White House’s economic policies will be resolved by the first decade of April, and he also anticipates that GDP data for the first quarter of 2025 will be positive. The tariff measures are reportedly already showing their effectiveness in driving significant increases in production and job opportunities in the United States.
“I’m first.” This is the conviction of a people embodied today by their elected president: "Make America Great Again."