Caution for China's economic growth as the government aims at Taiwan

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On Wednesday, March 5th, Chinese Premier Li Qiang opened the annual session of the National People's Congress— the main event on China's political calendar—and stated that the government fully intends to "firmly" promote the reunification process between China and Taiwan, and the choice of language is no accident.

Chinese Economic Growth
The growth prospects for Chinese economy are set at 5%, and despite the delicate economic landscape, exacerbated by U.S. trade policies, Beijing's focus is increasingly directed towards Taiwan, which self-governs democratically. However, the Chinese government does not hide the possibility of using military force to annex the island.

Defense setup and military activity in Taiwan
Currently, China possesses the largest navy in the world, and defense spending, which has reached 7.2% — about 245 billion dollars — is second only to the United States. However, according to the Pentagon, the total amount could be more than 40% higher, as some items are included under other budgets.

In recent years, Beijing has increased its military activity around Taiwan: between January and February 2025, there were 610 incursions by the Chinese air force, the so-called PLA (People's Liberation Army), into Taiwan’s ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone)—in 2023, there were 239, and in 2024, only 154. Moreover, there was a 40% increase in Chinese naval units (around 419) compared to 2024.

Taiwan's Reaction
Meanwhile, the Chinese government claims that reunification with Taiwan is part of a broader project aimed at the "rejuvenation" of the Chinese nation and stated that it will oppose any separatist demands or activities promoting Taiwan’s independence. In the meantime, Lai Ching-te, the president of Taiwan, has stated that only taiwanese people can decide their own future.