Geopolitical tensions push oil up, metals under pressure

Strong volatility in major commodity markets, driven by geopolitical tensions and anticipation of decisions on strategic oil reserves. The conflict in the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz partially blocked, has fueled fears of a disruption in global energy exports, pushing WTI to $87.29/bbl (+4.6%) and Brent to $91.33/bbl (+4.0%). The situation echoed Saudi Aramco’s warnings about potentially “catastrophic” market consequences if the stalemate continues, while G7 energy ministers confirmed support for using strategic reserves to stabilize prices.

On the precious metals front, gold remains stable around $5,199/oz (-0.8%), while silver sees a more marked decline at $87.06/oz (-2.8%). Investors still view gold as a safe-haven asset, but the strengthening dollar and expectations of higher interest rates reduce its appeal. Natural gas shows a slight rise to $3.07/MMBtu (+1.6%), mainly due to concerns over potential supply interruptions and seasonal demand.

From a macroeconomic perspective, inflationary outlooks and possible moves by U.S. and European central banks indirectly influence commodity markets. The proposed record release of reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has temporarily eased oil price spikes, though it has not eliminated the uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions.

Commodities remain highly sensitive to global events: oil leads the gains under geopolitical pressure, while gold and silver are affected by macroeconomic and financial factors. Market participants continue to monitor developments in the Middle East crisis, strategic reserve actions, and global market signals, awaiting further indications on the future of energy supply and monetary policies.

Andrea Pelucchi