Energy and metals retreat as Tycoon signals de-escalation on Iran and Fed policy

Overview

The global commodities market is currently characterized by divergent trends across precious metals, base metals, and the energy sector. Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) remain in bullish territory, bolstered by persistent geopolitical risks and robust safe-haven demand. Copper (HGUSD) continues to rally on strong industrial demand and ongoing supply disruptions. In contrast, WTI Crude Oil (CLUSD) and Brent Crude Oil show bearish tendencies, primarily due to oversupply concerns that outweigh geopolitical volatility. These dynamics reflect a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces, technical momentum, and recent geopolitical developments.

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold is trading at $4.61K per ounce, having recently approached its year high of $4.64K. The price remains well above both the 50-day average of $4.32K and the 200-day average of $3.78K, signaling a strong upward trend. Technical indicators such as the 14-day RSI are above the midline, indicating continued bullish momentum. The short-term micro-trend is rated as "STRONG_LONG," suggesting that upward pressure is likely to persist.

Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver is priced at $90.89 per ounce, with a recent year high of $93.36. The commodity is trading well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, further reinforcing the bullish trend. The micro-trend is currently "FLAT," indicating a potential pause or consolidation phase following a strong rally. Momentum indicators remain positive, although overbought signals suggest some caution in the very near term.

Copper (HGUSD)

Copper is currently trading at $5.98 per pound, with a pronounced move above both the 50-day average of $5.34 and the 200-day average of $4.95. The technical picture remains positive, with the price hovering near its year high of $6.11. The micro-trend is "FLAT," reflecting consolidation after significant gains. Strong support remains in place, and positive momentum is supported by both supply constraints and robust industrial demand.

WTI Crude Oil (CLUSD)

WTI Crude Oil is priced at $59.26 per barrel. The commodity is trading below its 200-day moving average of $62.16, indicating bearish momentum. RSI readings near 28–34 point to oversold conditions, which may signal a potential technical rebound if support levels around $56 are maintained. The micro-trend is "FLAT," highlighting ongoing consolidation within a generally bearish environment.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent Crude is trading around $60.3 per barrel and remains below its 200-day moving average of $77.8, further confirming bearish momentum. RSI near 34 also suggests oversold market conditions and the possibility of a technical bounce, but the overall trend remains fragile and vulnerable to further downside if supply issues persist.

Latest News and Events

Recent geopolitical events have played a significant role in shaping commodity prices. The removal of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and continued tensions in the Middle East have amplified safe-haven demand for gold and silver. Central bank accumulation, especially by emerging markets, has reinforced this trend. Silver has additionally benefited from industrial demand tied to the renewable energy and electronics sectors.

Copper's rally has been propelled by ongoing mine supply disruptions, low inventories, and increased demand from expanding sectors such as AI and defense. Potential reinstatement of U.S. tariffs in mid-2026 and persistent strikes in mining regions have further supported copper prices.

In the oil markets, the U.S. blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and OPEC+ production restraint have played a role but have not been sufficient to offset the prevailing supply-demand imbalance. Both WTI and Brent crude prices remain pressured by global oversupply, despite occasional volatility from geopolitical flashpoints such as unrest in Iran and Russian military actions in Ukraine.

Conclusion

The commodities landscape as of January 15, 2026, is marked by strong bullish trends in precious and base metals, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank accumulation, and industrial demand. Gold and silver continue to serve as safe havens, while copper’s fundamentals are boosted by supply constraints and growing industrial usage. Conversely, oil markets remain mired in bearish territory, with oversupply concerns dominating and only limited support from geopolitical risks. The near-term outlook for metals remains positive, particularly if geopolitical tensions persist or intensify, whereas crude oil faces ongoing challenges unless global supply tightens or demand rebounds.

Please note that the analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Users should conduct their own research.