Rio Tinto-Glencore, is a mining super giant being born? Talks underway for a deal worth over $200B

The possible marriage between the two giants could give rise to the world’s largest mining company, reshaping global balances in copper and strategic raw materials.

Rio Tinto and Glencore are back in talks, and the market is reacting with enthusiasm. The two mining groups have confirmed they are in discussions over a possible combination of part or all of their businesses, including a potential all-share acquisition that would create a colossus with a market capitalization exceeding $200 billion. It would be the largest deal ever seen in the mining sector.

The news immediately lit up stock markets: Glencore shares jumped by as much as 9.9% at the opening in London, while Rio Tinto recorded a decline, following sharp losses already seen on the Australian market. This is a typical signal in major merger operations, where investors bet on the premiums paid to shareholders of the target company.

The context is crucial. The mining sector is going through a new wave of acquisitions, driven by the race for copper, a key metal for the energy transition and electrical infrastructure. Prices surpassed $13,000 per tonne this week, record levels that make strategic assets more valuable than ever. Both Rio Tinto and Glencore boast major copper mines, and their union would allow them to compete directly with BHP Group for the title of the world’s largest mining company.

The two companies had already opened talks in 2024, which were later halted due to disagreements over valuation. Since then, however, the landscape has changed: Rio has a new chief executive, Simon Trott, focused on efficiency and simplification, while Glencore has renewed its ambitions in copper, aiming to nearly double production over the next decade. CEO Gary Nagle has repeatedly described a merger between the two groups as “the most obvious deal in the sector.”

For Rio, the agreement would mean further strengthening its exposure to copper and gaining access to top-tier assets, such as Chile’s Collahuasi mine. For Glencore, it could be an opportunity to unlock the value of a portfolio that goes well beyond copper, including coal, nickel, zinc, and a powerful trading division. It remains to be seen, however, whether Rio is interested in all of these activities.

Under UK takeover rules, Rio Tinto has until 5 February to decide whether to formalize an offer or walk away. In any case, the mere return to the negotiating table marks a potentially historic moment for a sector that is becoming increasingly central to global economic and geopolitical balances.

Andrea Pelucchi