Precious metals and Oil fall amid Venezuela tensions and US jobs data

Overview

The commodities market as of early January 2026 is marked by significant divergence across major assets, with geopolitical events—most notably the U.S. intervention in Venezuela under President Trump—playing a pivotal role in shaping short-term dynamics. WTI oil (CLUSD), Brent oil (BRNUSD), gold (XAU/USD), silver (XAG/USD), copper (HGUSD), and platinum have each responded differently to the interplay of supply-demand fundamentals, technical trends, and geopolitical developments.

Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil (CLUSD):

WTI crude oil is currently priced at $56.32 per barrel, trading near its year low of $54.98 and well below its year high of $80.77. The commodity remains under its 50-day and 200-day moving averages—$58.36 and $62.3, respectively—confirming a bearish short-term technical outlook. The market’s micro-trend is categorized as flat, reflecting indecision amid oversupply pressures and recent volatility. Historical chart data highlights a sustained downtrend over the past week, with repeated tests of support levels and limited upside momentum.

Brent Crude Oil (BRNUSD):

Brent oil is quoted at $0 per unit, though the context suggests broader market trading near $61.4 per barrel. Brent continues to trend downward, with prices approximately 17% lower year-on-year, pressured by oversupply and tepid demand forecasts. The market micro-trend is flat, indicating subdued momentum and little sign of a near-term reversal.

Gold (XAU/USD):

Gold is currently valued at $4.47K per ounce, having recently approached a new record high of $4.55K. The technical trend is strongly bullish, with the micro-trend described as "strong long." Gold has set over 50 all-time highs in 2025 and boasts year-to-date returns exceeding 60%. Recent daily charts show consistent higher lows and persistent buying interest, underscoring robust momentum.

Silver (XAG/USD):

Silver trades at $79.42 per ounce, having achieved a new all-time high near $83.94 in December. Silver has outperformed gold, rising over 100% year-to-date, with technical indicators confirming its robust uptrend. The micro-trend remains flat after a sharp recent rally, suggesting a period of consolidation.

Copper (HGUSD):

Copper is priced at $6.01 per unit, just below its all-time high of $6.07. The commodity has gained over 30% during 2025, supported by strong industrial demand and constrained supply. The technical trend is bullish, but the current micro-trend is flat, indicating short-term caution after recent gains.

Platinum

Platinum experienced a significant surge in June 2025, with prices climbing 28% for the month—its strongest monthly performance in decades. The technical backdrop is characterized by heightened volatility, driven by supply disruptions and increased investor interest.

Latest News and Events

The most consequential recent development is the U.S. intervention in Venezuela. On January 3, 2026, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, with President Trump announcing a U.S.-led transitional oversight of Venezuela. Subsequently, an agreement was reached for Venezuela to transfer 30–50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., to be sold at market price with revenue controlled by the U.S. administration. This move is expected to significantly increase global oil supply in the short term.

Geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S. action in Venezuela have introduced volatility to energy markets and heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets. The prospect of increased oil supply has put additional downward pressure on WTI and Brent prices, while gold and silver have benefited from heightened geopolitical risk. Industrial metals such as copper and platinum may see supply chain impacts if instability persists, though immediate effects are less pronounced.

Conclusion

In summary, the main commodities are exhibiting sharply divergent trends as 2026 begins. Crude oil markets, both WTI and Brent, are under sustained bearish pressure, exacerbated by oversupply conditions and the anticipated influx of Venezuelan barrels following U.S. intervention. Gold and silver are in strong bullish trends, fueled by safe-haven demand, expectations of U.S. rate cuts, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Copper and platinum remain supported by robust industrial demand and recent supply constraints but may face volatility if macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions shift.

This environment underscores the importance of closely monitoring both technical and geopolitical developments, as market sentiment remains sensitive to headline risk and shifting fundamentals.

Please note that the analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Users should conduct their own research.