Gold edges higher on a softer dollar and lower yields before U.S. jobs report; oil jumps on U.S.–Venezuela supply fears

User Avatar

UCapital Media

Share:

Overview

As of December 2025, the commodities landscape is marked by pronounced volatility and divergent trends across energy and precious metals. WTI crude oil (CLUSD, USO) and Brent crude oil (BRNUSD, BNO) are under pressure from persistent oversupply and subdued demand, despite intermittent rebounds driven by geopolitical events. In sharp contrast, gold (XAU/USD, GLD) and silver (XAG/USD, SLV) continue to stand out as primary beneficiaries of safe-haven demand, central bank accumulation, and robust industrial usage, particularly for silver. The near-term outlook for these assets is being shaped by a complex interplay of technical signals, evolving macroeconomic policies, and ongoing geopolitical developments.


Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil (CLUSD, USO) is currently trading at 57.48, hovering near five-month lows and testing critical support at 59.7. The price remains below both its 50-day moving average 59.3 and 200-day moving average 63.2, confirming a bearish technical structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the 28 range, signaling oversold conditions and suggesting that a technical rebound is possible if support holds. However, the prevailing micro-trend is flat, reflecting subdued momentum and market indecision.


Brent crude oil (BRNUSD, BNO) is quoted at 0 in some venues, while mainstream benchmarks indicate a price near 62.75 per barrel. Like WTI, Brent remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and is exhibiting a flat micro-trend, suggesting ongoing consolidation. Technical support is seen around 65, with resistance in the 68 range.


Gold (XAU/USD, GLD) is trading at 4.34K, well above its 50-day moving average 4.12K and 200-day moving average 3.62K, confirming strong technical momentum. The RSI is near 70, indicating an overbought market. The micro-trend is classified as STRONG_LONG, reflecting robust upward momentum and the likelihood of continued gains, although intermittent consolidation may follow recent advances.


Silver (XAG/USD, SLV) is currently priced at 63.59, standing above its 50-day 52.42 and 200-day 41.96 averages. The technical structure is strong, and the micro-trend is flat, implying a likely period of consolidation after significant gains, but with a positive medium-term bias due to ongoing investor and industrial demand.


Geopolitical and Market Factors

Geopolitical events are having a decisive impact on commodity pricing. The ceasefire agreement in Gaza has sharply reduced the geopolitical risk premium in oil, contributing to recent price declines and a more stable short-term outlook for both WTI and Brent crude. OPEC+ has suspended planned production increases for early 2026, maintaining its December hike of 137K, while the International Energy Agency warns of a potential oil supply glut of up to 4M by 2026, reinforcing downside risks for energy markets.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, including new tariffs and port fees, have amplified market volatility and dampened global oil demand expectations. The U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker has further constrained supply, while ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have triggered temporary supply disruptions and price spikes. Nevertheless, these shocks have often been offset by broader oversupply concerns.

For precious metals, the combination of persistent geopolitical instability, inflation risks, central bank accumulation, and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts has intensified safe-haven demand. A weakening U.S. dollar and robust ETF inflows have supported gold and silver prices. In addition, silver’s industrial demand, especially from the renewable energy and electronics sectors, is a key factor underpinning its strength.


Short-Term Outlook

WTI and Brent crude oil remain in technically oversold territory, indicating the potential for a short-term rebound if current support levels hold. However, the broader outlook for oil is cautious, with downside risks prevailing unless new geopolitical disruptions or significant OPEC+ policy shifts emerge. Stabilization in the Middle East has eased immediate supply concerns, but the market remains susceptible to renewed volatility if global demand deteriorates or fresh disruptions arise.

Gold is expected to remain well supported in the near term, with ongoing global uncertainties, strong safe-haven flows, and central bank buying sustaining elevated prices. Even with technically overbought signals, the prevailing bullish trend and supportive macroeconomic backdrop suggest continued resilience. Silver’s outlook is similarly constructive, benefiting from its dual role as a safe haven and an industrial metal, particularly in the energy transition and electronics sectors.


Latest News and Events

  1. The U.S.–Venezuela standoff has contributed to supply disruptions and a recent increase in oil prices, while ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have introduced volatility and potential stabilization.
  2. OPEC+’s restrained output and the Gaza ceasefire have reassured oil markets, reducing immediate fears of oversupply but leaving prices sensitive to renewed shocks.
  3. Gold and silver have surged to record highs amid escalating macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, central bank accumulation, and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.
  4. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to drive volatility across both energy and metals markets.

Further coverage and detailed news can be found at:

  1. Oil recoups some losses as investors focus on US-China trade talks (Reuters)
  2. Gold rises to record as US-China trade woes escalate; silver scales all-time peak (Reuters)
  3. Oil prices firm after Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, stalled peace talks (Reuters)


Conclusion

In summary, WTI and Brent crude oil are navigating a technically oversold environment, with the potential for a near-term rebound if critical support levels are maintained. However, the overarching trend remains cautious due to persistent oversupply risks, subdued demand, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Gold and silver continue to stand out as the primary beneficiaries of global instability, underpinned by strong technical momentum, safe-haven demand, central bank accumulation, and robust industrial use (notably for silver). The commodities market as a whole is highly sensitive to ongoing developments in geopolitics, central bank policy, and macroeconomic data, making vigilant monitoring essential for effective short-term positioning.


Please note that the analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Users should conduct their own research.