Gold steady as yields offset weaker dollar; oil falls amid stalled Ukraine talks

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Overview

The late 2025 global commodities landscape is marked by heightened volatility and divergence between sectors, especially among West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (CL=F), Brent crude oil (BZ=F), and gold (XAU/USD, GC=F). Energy markets remain under pressure from persistent oversupply risks and subdued demand, while precious metals—most notably gold—continue to attract robust safe-haven flows in the face of geopolitical instability, inflation concerns, and central bank accumulation. The interplay of technical indicators, evolving geopolitical developments, and shifting market sentiment is shaping both near-term price action and broader outlooks for these major commodities.


Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil (CL=F)

WTI crude oil is currently trading at 59.59 per barrel, hovering near five-month lows and testing critical support in the 59.7 region. The price remains below both its 50-day moving average 59.67 and 200-day moving average 63.53, confirming a prevailing bearish technical structure. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have recently fallen into the 28 range, signaling oversold conditions and suggesting the potential for a short-term technical rebound if support holds. However, the micro-trend is classified as FLAT, reflecting ongoing market indecision and subdued momentum. This setup implies that while downside risks persist, any stabilization at these support levels could trigger a relief rally.


Brent Crude Oil (BZ=F, BRNUSD)

Brent crude oil is quoted at 63.12 per barrel, also trading near key support with resistance around 66. Technicals show Brent below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and support found near 63.84. The technical outlook mirrors that of WTI: the prevailing structure is bearish, and the micro-trend remains FLAT, suggesting a period of consolidation or continued weakness if support fails. The International Energy Agency warns of a potential oil supply glut of up to 4M, reinforcing downside risks.


Gold (XAU/USD, GC=F)

Gold is trading at 4.22K per ounce, well above its 50-day moving average 4.1K and 200-day moving average 3.59K, confirming robust technical momentum and a sustained bullish trend. The RSI is near 70, indicating the market is overbought and may enter a period of consolidation. The prevailing micro-trend is STRONG_LONG, suggesting that the short-term path of least resistance remains upward, though intermittent pullbacks or consolidation could follow recent gains.


Geopolitical and Market Factors

Geopolitical developments are exerting a decisive influence on both oil and gold markets. In the oil sector, the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and OPEC+'s pause on planned production increases for early 2026 have contributed to recent price declines and stabilized the near-term outlook for WTI and Brent. The International Energy Agency projects a potential oil supply glut in 2026, driven by increased non-OPEC+ production and the unwinding of previous output cuts, weighing on sentiment.

Additional volatility stems from ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, including new tariff announcements and port fees, which have dampened global oil demand expectations. U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil exports and recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have temporarily disrupted supply and led to price spikes, but these effects are largely offset by broader oversupply concerns.

For gold, persistent geopolitical instability—including Middle East unrest, U.S.-China trade frictions, and the Ukraine conflict—has driven strong safe-haven demand. Central bank accumulation, robust ETF inflows, inflationary fears, and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts are reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge. The weakening U.S. dollar and concerns over fiscal policy continue to support elevated gold prices.


Latest News and Events

Recent headlines highlight the dominant role of geopolitics and policy in shaping commodity markets:

  1. WTI is poised for a weekly gain, buoyed by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and heightened tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions.
  2. Read more
  3. Brent crude remains under pressure due to oversupply concerns and the International Energy Agency’s projection of a large surplus in 2026, despite OPEC+ maintaining its current production policy.
  4. Read more
  5. Gold has surged to record highs, supported by global instability, central bank buying, and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.
  6. Read more


Short-Term Outlook

WTI and Brent crude oil remain in a technically oversold environment, suggesting the potential for a short-term rebound if critical support levels persist. Nevertheless, the broader trend remains cautious amid continued oversupply risks, subdued demand, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Stabilization in the Middle East has eased immediate supply concerns, but the oil market remains vulnerable to renewed volatility should global demand weaken or additional supply disruptions arise.

Gold is expected to remain well supported in the near term, as ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, robust safe-haven demand, and central bank accumulation sustain elevated prices. Despite technical overbought signals, the prevailing bullish trend and supportive macroeconomic context suggest continued resilience and further upside potential if current trends persist.


Conclusion

WTI and Brent crude oil are navigating a technically oversold environment, with near-term rebound potential hinging on the maintenance of key support levels. The overarching outlook for oil remains cautious given persistent oversupply risks, weak demand, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. In contrast, gold continues to stand out as the primary beneficiary of global instability, underpinned by strong technical momentum and fundamental drivers such as safe-haven flows and central bank buying. Across all major commodities, vigilant monitoring of geopolitical developments, central bank policy, and macroeconomic data will remain essential for effective short-term positioning.


Please note that the analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Users should conduct their own research.