Markets seeking momentum: Tech rally, rate expectations, and the puzzle of the “New Fed”

Stock futures are up, as Wall Street aims to build two consecutive sessions in positive territory. The most important futures are in the rise: the Dow Jones +0.2%, the S&P 500 +0.3%, and the NASDAQ +0.4%.

Yesterday’s session, November 25, 2025, saw the Wall Street market close higher. Some technology stocks rallied, supporting the broader market. Alphabet reached new all-time highs after its agreement with Meta on the use of Google’s TCU chips in 2027. This deal naturally came at odds with Nvidia, which lost more than 2.5%.

Investors’ eyes are on the factors that could influence the Fed’s moves on interest rates, with the next meeting scheduled for December 10, 2025: at the moment, there is roughly an 85% probability of a quarter-point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that there is a good chance President Donald Trump will announce something before the Christmas holidays about who will be the new Fed Chair. Prospects currently point toward Kevin Hassett, but the candidate consultation phase is still open. Hassett appears more inclined to support lower rates.

In conclusion, the U.S. stock market in November has proven to be a complicated month: the three major indexes are headed for losses, as fears over high valuations have held back the takeoff of some Tech stocks. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones have respectively lost - since the beginning of the month - about 1.1%, 3%, and 1%.

Andrea Pelucchi