European indices end higher on renewed Fed-easing hopes and Ukraine ceasefire talks

Indices

Major European indices are demonstrating a combination of resilience and consolidation, with most benchmarks holding close to multi-year or all-time highs. The FTSE MIB Index (FTSEMIB.MI) is trading at 42712.68, up 414.51 or 0.97997, maintaining a STRONG_LONG trend, indicative of sustained institutional inflows, especially in banking and energy. The DAX Performance Index (^GDAXI) is at 23455.35, rising 216.17 or 0.9302, but showing a FLAT micro-trend, which suggests consolidation after recent gains.

France’s CAC 40 (^FCHI) is trading at 8025.8, up 66.13 or 0.83081, with a FLAT micro-trend reflecting investor caution amid political uncertainty. The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) prints 9613.74, up 78.83 or 0.82675, and also shows a FLAT trend, evidencing a tactical pause. Spain’s IBEX 35 (^IBEX) stands at 16150.8, advancing 183 or 1.14606, and holding above both 50- and 200-day moving averages, suggesting constructive longer-term momentum.

The Euro STOXX 50 (^STOXX50E) is at 5571.59, up 42.92 or 0.77632, holding a STRONG_LONG bias that underlines continued bullish conviction in Eurozone blue chips. Overall, the technical landscape suggests a tactical pause with potential for renewed upside, contingent on macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

Stocks

Sector rotation is the prevailing theme, with banking and basic resources continuing to lead. Spanish banks Sabadell (SABE.MC) and Caixabank (CABK.MC) have posted year-to-date returns of 67 and 47, fueling the IBEX 35’s outperformance. Steelmakers such as ArcelorMittal (MT:MT), Aperam (APAM.AS), Thyssenkrupp (TKAG.DE), and SSAB (SSABa.ST) have each advanced over 3 on supportive regulatory changes.

In contrast, autos and technology are lagging. BMW (BMW:GR) is down 8.9 following a weak earnings outlook, while ASML (ASML.AS) and ASM International (ASMI.AS) face renewed chip export restrictions. French banks Société Générale (GLE), Crédit Agricole (ACA), and BNP Paribas (BNP) are also under pressure, contributing to recent weakness in the CAC 40. High-momentum stocks like SmartKem, Inc. (SMTK) have surged 17.36111, while laggards such as Biodexa Pharmaceuticals Plc (BDRX) dropped -16.08696, highlighting current bifurcation in sector performance.

Economic News

Recent macroeconomic data present a mixed but generally constructive backdrop. Spain’s Q3 GDP growth slowed to 0.6 from 0.8, and retail sales growth eased to 4.2, down from 4.7, signaling cooling consumer demand. However, Eurozone consumer confidence has improved by 0.7 to -14.2, which is a positive sign for household spending and supports consumption-driven sectors.

The European Commission has revised its 2025 eurozone growth forecast upward to 1.3, up from 0.9, attributing the increase to strong export growth ahead of expected tariff hikes. Inflation is forecast to move toward the ECB’s target, with rates at 2.1 and 1.9, which alleviates some pressure on policymakers.

Economic Events

This week’s macroeconomic calendar is eventful, with key data releases including Eurozone Industrial Production, GDP figures, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and France’s Consumer Price Index. In Spain, significant releases such as the Producer Price Index, Consumer Confidence, and Retail Sales are anticipated, with retail sales (YoY and MoM) and inflation figures (CPI, HICP, and Core Inflation) expected to drive market direction. Central bank meetings—especially those by the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve—are in focus, as their policy statements can influence rate-sensitive sectors and overall risk appetite. Spain’s bond auctions, reflecting easing funding costs, are further supporting risk assets and sovereign debt performance.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment across European equities is best described as cautiously optimistic. Sustained capital inflows into blue-chip indices such as the Euro STOXX 50 (^STOXX50E) and FTSE MIB Index (FTSEMIB.MI) are supported by stable credit conditions and expectations of accommodative central bank policy. Outperformance in basic resources and banking is offsetting persistent weakness in autos and technology, fostering a sector-rotational approach among investors. While the technical and macroeconomic backdrop appears supportive of further upside in leading benchmarks, investors remain vigilant ahead of high-impact economic and policy announcements.

Please note that the analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Users should conduct their own research.