Gold ticks down as investors await delayed US data

Gold prices eased to around $4,070 per ounce on Monday, marking a third straight session of declines as investors positioned themselves ahead of a heavy wave of postponed US economic data expected over the coming days.

The release backlog, stemming from the lengthy government shutdown, has heightened uncertainty about the true state of the US economy, prompting traders to tread cautiously.

The centerpiece of the week will be September’s non-farm payrolls report, scheduled for Thursday, which is expected to offer critical clues about labor-market momentum and, in turn, the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. Economists anticipate a softer print, but with data distortions still possible due to the shutdown, volatility may increase after its release.

Expectations for a December rate cut have continued to fade, following a series of hawkish remarks from Fed officials last week stressing resilience in consumer spending and the need to keep inflation on a firm downward trajectory.

As a result, markets now price in only a 46% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, down from more than 60% earlier in the month and over 95% just a few weeks prior. This recalibration in rate expectations has weighed on non-yielding assets like gold, tempering near-term demand.

Even so, bullion remains one of the standout performers of 2025. The metal is up roughly 55% year-to-date, putting it on course for its strongest annual performance since 1979.

The rally has been fueled by robust central bank purchases, continued appetite among long-term investors seeking protection against mounting fiscal strains, and persistent geopolitical tensions that have kept safe-haven demand elevated.

Looking ahead, analysts note that gold’s short-term trajectory may hinge on this week’s incoming data and Fed communications, though the broader macro backdrop continues to provide a supportive floor for prices.