Artificial Odyssey: OpenAI’s unstoppable journey toward uncharted frontiers

OpenAI has outlined an ambitious trajectory: aiming for revenues exceeding 100 billion dollars by 2029, with forecasts ranging between 100 and 125 billion dollars. However, the growth rate required is exceptional and raises questions about sustainability and actual feasibility.

The chart above shows the company’s projected revenues for the years 2023–2029, specifically regarding revenues derived from Artificial Intelligence. In the “Fall 2024 Projection” (left), forecasts point to about 100 billion dollars in total revenues in 2029. In the “Winter 2025 Projection” (right), the forecast has been revised upward: roughly 125 billion dollars in 2029, with a significant contribution from the new “New products” segment (orange), in addition to existing components.

The chart suggests that new product lines (intelligent agents, monetization of free users, etc.) become a significant driver in the “orange” portion of the bar in 2029. In terms of compounded growth, these are very high rates: going from a few billion in 2024 to over 100 by 2029 requires a CAGR well above 70–80% per year — extremely aggressive for a tech/AI company.

Cost and efficiency data are not shown in the chart, but from available sources we know that OpenAI is bearing enormous infrastructure costs (data centers, chips, models, research). Therefore, the revenue projections must be assessed in relation to a very high operational and financial risk.

The projection is therefore highly aggressive and inevitably raises a question: “How is it possible that forecasts in just five years reach this level — nearly ten times higher?” If achieved, we would be witnessing an industrial revolution comparable to the advent of electricity. We are facing a new paradigm: until now, the market has valued hyperscalers according to these expectations, but investors are beginning to question whether such goals can actually be met. Hence the weaknesses seen in recent days in the tech sector.

Revenue components are divided into four major blocks: the core product, ChatGPT (so far the main source of income); APIs, meaning the sale of language-model and generative-model capacity to other companies/partners; “Other,” which likely includes ancillary services, licensing, infrastructure, and enterprise contracts; and “New products/monetization of free users,” the channel considered fundamental for pushing growth beyond current models.

As for the strategic levers behind this titanic move, they include: boosting the use of APIs in enterprise and vertical contexts, increasing customer value; integrating agent-based solutions (intelligent autonomous software); and monetizing users who have so far remained free, thereby expanding the addressable market.

The challenges ahead are equally ambitious: the growth rate required (from a few billion to over 100 in five years) exceeds most historical cases of leading tech companies; the costs needed to support this growth are enormous, and OpenAI already burns billions on infrastructure, research, and development; the AI market must contend with rapid innovation, technological shifts, and uncertain regulation. The obstacles on the horizon are therefore far from trivial.

OpenAI’s vision is clearly to become not just a chatbot provider, but a global-scale artificial-intelligence platform with broad and diversified monetization. If the trajectory unfolds as projected, then 2029 could mark a turning point in the AI business model. However, the combination of required growth rates, high costs, and market uncertainties suggests that success is far from guaranteed: this is a high-stakes bet with immense potential — but also significant risks.

Andrea Pelucchi