Commodities up: gold tops $4,000 on weak dollar, oil gains on U.S. shutdown hopes, natgas strong

Overview

The global commodities market in late 2025 is defined by heightened volatility and pronounced divergence among key assets—West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, Brent crude oil, gold, and natural gas. Oil markets are pressured by oversupply concerns and fading geopolitical risk premiums, while precious metals like gold are buoyed by robust safe-haven demand amid persistent macroeconomic and political uncertainty. Natural gas, meanwhile, is experiencing volatility driven by supply dynamics and shifting geopolitical developments. The interplay of technical indicators, macroeconomic sentiment, and major geopolitical events continues to dominate short-term market direction.

Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil (CLUSD)

WTI crude oil is currently trading at 60.07 per barrel, hovering near five-month lows and testing critical support at 59.70. The price remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages—61.7612 and 64.18565—confirming a bearish technical structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the 28–34, indicating oversold conditions and the possibility of a technical rebound if support holds. However, the prevailing micro-trend is flat, reflecting subdued momentum and ongoing market indecision.

Brent Crude Oil (BRNUSD)

Brent crude oil is trading at 64.77 per barrel, with technical indicators similarly bearish. The price stands below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and support is seen near 65, with resistance in the 68–69 zone. The micro-trend remains flat, underscoring ongoing market indecision and the potential for either further consolidation or renewed weakness. Both WTI and Brent are in technically oversold territory, which could prompt a short-term rebound if support levels hold, but the broader technical outlook remains bearish due to continued supply and demand imbalances.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold is trading at 4078.705 per ounce, well above its 50-day 3943.3142 and 200-day 3473.00402 moving averages. The RSI hovers near 70, pointing to overbought conditions; however, the prevailing trend is strongly bullish, with the short-term signal classified as STRONG_LONG. This strong upside momentum suggests continued near-term resilience, although a period of consolidation could emerge if technically stretched conditions persist.

Natural Gas (NGUSD)

Natural gas is currently trading at 4.493 per MMBtu, reflecting a daily increase of 4.12514. The price remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, aligning with a bullish technical backdrop. The micro-trend is currently flat, indicating the market may be pausing after recent gains to reassess macroeconomic and geopolitical signals.

Geopolitical and Market Factors

Recent geopolitical developments have had a decisive impact on commodity markets. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has sharply reduced the geopolitical risk premium in oil, contributing to price declines and a more stable near-term outlook for both WTI and Brent. OPEC+ has paused planned production increases for the first quarter of 2026, maintaining its December hike of 137000 amid persistent oversupply concerns. The International Energy Agency projects a potential oil supply glut of up to 4000000 by 2026, further reinforcing downside risks for oil.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, including new tariff announcements, have amplified volatility and suppressed demand growth for energy commodities. Conversely, positive developments such as progress toward a U.S.-China trade deal have occasionally supported short-term rebounds in oil prices. For gold, persistent geopolitical instability, expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, central bank accumulation, and robust ETF inflows have intensified safe-haven flows.

Natural gas markets are particularly sensitive to European supply risks and global political developments. While geopolitical tensions remain high, strong supply has thus far prevented major price disruptions.

Short-Term Outlook

WTI and Brent crude oils remain technically oversold, signaling the potential for a short-term rebound if support levels near recent lows are sustained. Nevertheless, the broader outlook remains cautious, with continued downside risks absent new geopolitical disruptions or significant OPEC+ policy shifts. The stabilization in the Middle East has helped ease immediate supply concerns, but the risk of renewed volatility persists if global demand deteriorates or fresh supply shocks arise.

Gold is expected to remain well supported in the near term, buoyed by ongoing global uncertainties, strong safe-haven demand, central bank buying, and a weakening U.S. dollar. Although the market is technically overbought, the prevailing bullish trend and macroeconomic backdrop suggest further resilience. Natural gas is likely to remain volatile, with bullish technical signals and ongoing support from supply constraints, but is still susceptible to news-driven swings and shifts in global demand.

Latest News and Events

1. OPEC+ has suspended planned output increases for Q1 2026 in response to surplus concerns, contributing to a modest rebound in oil prices. Read more
2. The Gaza ceasefire has sharply reduced oil’s risk premium, while continuing U.S.-China trade tensions have added to market volatility.
3. Gold and silver have reached record highs amid escalating macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, central bank accumulation, and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold market news
4. Natural gas remains volatile, influenced by ongoing production increases, mild weather, and storage dynamics, but is projected to rise in early 2026 as demand and supply dynamics evolve.

Conclusion

In summary, the late 2025 commodities landscape is marked by technically oversold and fragile setups in oil, robust bullish momentum in gold, and ongoing volatility in natural gas. Oil markets may experience near-term stabilization or a technical rebound from oversold levels but remain vulnerable to further downside if demand weakens or supply increases unexpectedly. Gold stands out as the primary beneficiary of global uncertainty, supported by both technical and fundamental drivers. Natural gas is likely to remain volatile in the short term, with its trajectory closely tied to geopolitical developments and supply dynamics. Vigilant monitoring of technical indicators, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical events will be crucial for navigating these markets in the immediate future.

Please note that the analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Users should conduct their own research.