Commodities today: precious metals are trading in the red, while WTI and Brent continue their decline, down more than one percent

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Overview

The global commodities market in late 2025 is marked by pronounced volatility and divergent trends across key sectors. Energy markets, represented by WTI crude oil (CLUSD, USO) and Brent crude oil (BRNUSD, BNO), are under pressure from oversupply concerns and subdued demand, while precious metals such as gold (XAU/USD, GLD) and silver (XAG/USD, SLV) continue to benefit from robust safe-haven flows amid persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. The interplay between technical indicators, market sentiment, and evolving geopolitical developments is dictating short-term price action and shaping the near-term outlook for these commodities.


Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil (CLUSD, USO)

WTI crude oil is currently trading at 60.07 per barrel, hovering near five-month lows and testing critical support at the 59.70 mark. The price remains below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages—61.7612 and 64.18565—confirming a prevailing bearish technical structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the 28–34 range, indicating oversold conditions and the potential for a technical rebound if support holds. However, the micro-trend is flat, reflecting subdued momentum and ongoing market indecision.


Brent Crude Oil (BRNUSD, BNO)

Brent crude oil is priced at 64.77 per barrel, with the technical outlook similarly bearish. The price is below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and support is seen around 65, with resistance in the 68–69 range. The micro-trend remains flat, underscoring ongoing market indecision and the potential for either a period of consolidation or renewed weakness.


Gold (XAU/USD, GLD)

Gold is trading at 3995.52 per ounce, having recently set new all-time highs. The current price is well above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages—3907.3595 and 3448.70024—indicating robust technical momentum. The RSI is near 70, signaling an overbought market, yet the prevailing micro-trend is classified as STRONG_LONG, suggesting the short-term path of least resistance remains upward, albeit with the risk of intermittent consolidation.


Silver (XAG/USD, SLV)

Silver is quoted at 47.729 per ounce, having posted significant year-to-date gains. The price stands above both its 50-day 46.73886 and 200-day 38.24284 averages, reflecting underlying technical strength. The micro-trend is flat, suggesting a pause or consolidation phase after robust gains, but the broader bias remains positive due to ongoing investor demand and safe-haven flows.


Geopolitical Factors

Geopolitical events have played a decisive role in shaping recent commodity price action. The ceasefire in Gaza has sharply reduced the geopolitical risk premium in oil, contributing to price declines and stabilizing the near-term outlook for both WTI and Brent. OPEC+ has paused planned production increases for early 2026, maintaining its December hike of 137000 barrels per day as supply continues to outpace demand. The International Energy Agency projects a potential oil supply glut of up to 4000000 by 2026, further reinforcing downside risks.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, including new tariff announcements, have added to market volatility and suppressed demand growth. Conversely, positive developments such as the framework for a U.S.-China trade deal have led to short-term rebounds in oil prices, as seen with WTI and Brent rising in late October 2025. Precious metals, meanwhile, remain highly sensitive to shifts in geopolitical risk, benefiting from safe-haven demand during periods of heightened uncertainty and risk-off sentiment.


Short-Term Outlook

For oil markets, both WTI and Brent remain technically oversold, indicating a potential for a short-term rebound if current support levels hold. However, the broader outlook is cautious, with downside risks prevailing absent new geopolitical disruptions or significant OPEC+ policy adjustments. Stabilization in the Middle East has eased immediate supply concerns, but the market remains vulnerable to renewed volatility if global demand deteriorates or fresh supply disruptions arise.

Gold is expected to remain well supported in the near term due to persistent global instability, strong central bank accumulation, and robust safe-haven flows. Despite technically overbought conditions, the prevailing bullish trend and supportive macroeconomic backdrop suggest continued resilience. Silver’s outlook is similarly constructive, benefiting from both safe-haven interest and sustained industrial demand.


Latest News and Events

Recent headlines have underscored the decisive impact of both geopolitical and policy developments on commodities:

  1. The Gaza ceasefire and OPEC+’s restrained output increase have reassured oil markets, reducing immediate fears of oversupply but leaving prices sensitive to renewed shocks.
  2. Oil prices briefly rebounded on positive signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations but remain pressured by ongoing demand concerns and the prospect of a supply glut.
  3. Gold and silver have surged to record highs amid escalating macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, central bank accumulation, and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.
  4. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to amplify volatility across energy and metals markets, with investors closely monitoring inflation data and Treasury yields.

For further coverage, refer to these sources:

  1. Oil recoups some losses as investors focus on US-China trade talks (Reuters)
  2. Gold rises to record as US-China trade woes escalate; silver scales all-time peak (Reuters)
  3. Ample supply, subdued demand to curb oil prices despite geopolitical risks – Reuters


Conclusion

In summary, WTI and Brent crude oil are currently navigating a technically oversold environment, with the possibility of a near-term rebound if critical support levels are maintained. However, the overarching trend remains cautious due to oversupply risks and subdued demand. Gold and silver continue to stand out as the primary beneficiaries of ongoing global uncertainty, supported by both technical momentum and strong fundamental drivers. The commodities market as a whole remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, central bank policy, and macroeconomic data, demanding vigilant monitoring for effective positioning in the immediate future.


Please note that the analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Users should conduct their own research.