The Big Tech night: Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet face the AI test

Tonight’s earnings put the spotlight on one key question: is artificial intelligence already changing the numbers, or is it still just a balance-sheet promise?

Wall Street is holding its breath: tonight, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet will unveil their quarterly results. Three giants, one common thread — AI — which has evolved from a technological promise into the main yardstick by which the markets now judge them.

Microsoft, the most “mature” player in the artificial intelligence business, is expected to close the first fiscal quarter of 2025/26 with revenues around $75.5 billion and earnings per share of $3.68. The Productivity & Business Processes division (Office, LinkedIn, and Copilot) is projected at $32.3 billion, followed by Intelligent Cloud (Azure) between $30.1 and $30.4 billion. Analysts estimate that the AI component alone now contributes up to 1.5 percentage points to overall growth. The Personal Computing segment — boosted by the new AI-native laptops — should come in at around $12.5 billion. All eyes are on the guidance and on the adoption speed of Copilot for Enterprise, the true gauge of AI monetization. Strategically, the spotlight is also on Microsoft’s official entry into OpenAI’s capital with a 27% stake, valuing the startup at $135 billion, and granting exclusive rights to use its models until 2032 — a deal that could reshape the balance of power across the sector.

For Meta, the earnings report will be a crucial test of both the health of digital advertising and its ability to translate the AI race into revenue. The group led by Mark Zuckerberg expects revenues between $47.5 and $50.5 billion, with annual expenses rising to $118 billion, driven by a doubling of infrastructure investments. The consensus points to $49.4 billion in revenue and $6.6 EPS. The market is focusing on Reels and Instagram Ads, but also on the debut of the new Meta AI integrated into WhatsApp, Messenger, and Facebook. The key issue, however, remains cost sustainability: Meta continues to be one of the most aggressive companies in terms of capital expenditures.

Finally, Alphabet must prove that its AI transformation can coexist with its historic cash cow: search. Consensus estimates earnings per share of $2.73, supported by strong performances from Google Cloud and online advertising. But the real question is whether the new AI Overview truly enhances the user experience without eroding margins. Once again, the market will scrutinize the guidance: Google is promising operational discipline, but massive investments in data centers and TPU chips are testing its financial resilience — all while regulatory pressure intensifies on both sides of the Atlantic.

Andrea Pelucchi