Copper at record highs: the Red Metal’s surge isn’t just about the USA-China truce

Geopolitics matter, but it’s production disruptions in major mines that have pushed copper past $11,000 a ton. With the market slipping into a supply deficit, the metal is once again at the heart of the global industrial boom.

Gold is sliding below $4,000 an ounce while copper is soaring above $11,000 a ton — a contrast that says a lot about market sentiment. After months of tension, renewed dialogue between the United States and China has boosted investor optimism, but diplomacy alone isn’t driving the red metal’s rally.

Since the start of the year, copper has gained roughly 25% on the London Metal Exchange, reaching $11,096 a ton — just shy of its all-time high from 2024. And while a trade truce between Trump and Xi Jinping could further lift global demand, the real push is coming from the supply side: copper mines around the world are struggling.

The most dramatic case is Grasberg in Indonesia — the world’s second-largest copper mine — shut down since September after a landslide that killed seven miners. Freeport-McMoRan, which operates the site, expects a gradual restart only by mid-2026. The output loss is massive: over half a million tons of copper concentrate between this year and next.

And that’s not all. In Congo, the Kamoa-Kakula mine was hit by an earthquake; in Chile, explosions and project delays at El Teniente and Quebrada Blanca forced Codelco and Teck Resources to sharply cut their production targets.

The result? The International Copper Study Group now forecasts a global deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026, after previously expecting a surplus. Investment banks are even gloomier: Morgan Stanley sees a shortfall approaching 600,000 tons.

Meanwhile, the United States continues to play a bullish role. The White House recently granted a two-year reprieve from environmental obligations to its two copper smelters, while high tariffs have failed to halt the flow of copper cathodes across the Atlantic.

With the energy transition, rising tech-sector demand, and a lack of new mining projects, copper has become one of the hottest commodities on the planet. And if prices finally break past the $11,100 mark, this record might just be the beginning of a new, long-lasting bull run.