Gold tops $4,000 for the first time

Gold surpassed $4,000 per ounce on Wednesday, reaching a fresh milestone as investors sought safe-haven assets amid intensifying global economic and political uncertainty and a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve.

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now entering its second week, has delayed the release of key economic indicators such as employment and inflation data, further complicating analysts’ efforts to gauge the underlying health of the U.S. economy. Despite the data blackout, futures markets continue to price in two rate cuts of 25 basis points each—one in October and another in December—reflecting growing expectations that the Fed will prioritize supporting growth over inflation control.

Meanwhile, political instability in Europe—particularly the deepening crisis in France following weeks of protests and cabinet reshuffles—has rattled regional markets. In Asia, Japan’s surprise leadership transition has also added an element of unpredictability to monetary and fiscal policy direction, amplifying global investor caution.

Gold’s rally, now exceeding 50% year-to-date, underscores the scale of investor anxiety. The surge has been driven not only by trade frictions and geopolitical tensions but also by the steady weakening of the U.S. dollar, which has made the metal more attractive to international buyers. Central banks, particularly in emerging economies, have maintained a strong pace of gold accumulation as part of diversification strategies to reduce reliance on the greenback.

Adding to the bullish momentum, exchange-traded funds backed by physical bullion recorded their largest monthly inflows in over three years during September, following the Fed’s most recent rate cut. With real yields turning increasingly negative and volatility across equity and bond markets persisting, analysts suggest that gold could continue to attract inflows in the months ahead, potentially pushing prices to new all-time highs if global uncertainties remain unresolved.