Oil poised for strong weekly gain

Brent crude futures climbed toward $70 per barrel on Friday, hovering near an eight-week peak and on track for their strongest weekly gain since early June. The rally was fueled by heightened supply concerns tied to the Ukraine conflict and tightening Russian export restrictions.

US President Donald Trump urged Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to halt imports of Russian crude, a move aimed at further constraining Moscow’s energy revenues.

Earlier in the week, Ukraine’s drone strikes damaged Russian refining and fuel infrastructure, prompting Moscow to curb fuel exports and consider deeper crude output cuts. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed a partial diesel export ban through year-end and an extension of the gasoline export ban, citing declining refining capacity and shortages of specific fuel grades.

Offsetting some of the upside, the resumption of Kurdish oil exports and tempered expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts—previously seen as supportive for economic growth and oil demand—introduced downside risks.

WTI crude futures also traded higher, above $65 per barrel, holding near a three-week top and likewise set for their best weekly performance since June. The drivers mirrored those in the Brent market, with Russian supply disruptions and heightened geopolitical risk providing a strong floor for prices.

However, the upside momentum was capped by similar counterforces: the gradual return of Kurdish exports eased tightness in Mediterranean supply, while shifting Fed expectations limited hopes for a demand boost through looser monetary policy. Still, analysts noted that risk premiums tied to geopolitical instability remain firmly embedded in oil benchmarks, keeping prices elevated despite mixed demand signals.