Gold extends record run on Fed rate-cut bets

Gold surged to a fresh all-time high of around $3,650 per ounce on Tuesday, buoyed by mounting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts through the remainder of the year.

The rally gained momentum after last Friday’s unexpectedly weak US jobs report, which prompted markets to fully price in three rate reductions in 2025, including a 25 bps move at next week’s policy meeting.

Traders are now turning their focus to key US producer and consumer price data due later this week, which could either reinforce or temper expectations of an accelerated easing cycle.

A softer inflation print would likely cement the case for further cuts, while any upside surprise could introduce short-term volatility across rates and precious metals markets.

Beyond monetary policy, gold continues to draw strong safe-haven flows amid uncertainty over US trade policy, particularly the potential for new tariff measures, as well as persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

Central bank demand remains a key pillar of support, with official sector purchases helping to underpin the rally even during periods of profit-taking.

So far this year, bullion has gained an impressive 39%, propelled by a weaker US dollar, robust official reserves accumulation, dovish global monetary policy settings, and broader risk aversion.

The metal’s sharp ascent has also drawn fresh interest from retail and institutional investors, with ETF inflows rebounding after months of outflows, suggesting a broadening base of support behind the rally.