TTF gas prices rebound, on track for weekly gain

European natural gas futures climbed back above €33 per megawatt-hour, rebounding from a 15-month low of €31 on August 15, as optimism over a swift peace deal in Ukraine faded.

Initial hopes that President Trump could quickly broker an agreement have waned, with Russia pushing for territorial concessions and influence over Ukraine’s long-term security framework, making any breakthrough increasingly unlikely. Without progress on the diplomatic front, traders now expect Europe to continue facing structurally tight supplies, with little chance of Russian pipeline flows returning in the near future.

On the supply side, attention has shifted to Norway, Europe’s largest gas supplier, where planned maintenance at several fields and processing facilities is set to temporarily reduce output in the coming weeks. Such disruptions, even if short-lived, have the potential to tighten the balance in an already fragile market. At the same time, competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas cargoes remains intense, with Europe likely needing to bid up prices to secure shipments ahead of peak winter demand.

Storage levels also remain a key concern. EU gas reserves are currently just under 75% full, well below the more than 90% level seen at the same point last year, leaving the bloc more vulnerable heading into the winter heating season. The slower pace of injections has raised questions about whether Europe will have sufficient buffer stocks should cold weather coincide with unexpected supply outages.

After two weeks of declines, futures have gained nearly 8% this week, as traders reassessed both geopolitical risks and the fragility of Europe’s supply outlook. Market participants are now closely watching weather forecasts, upcoming LNG delivery schedules, and further developments in peace negotiations for cues on whether the recent rebound could extend into September or if bearish pressure might return.