Gold rises for third session

Gold prices climbed toward $3,370 per ounce on Thursday, marking a third straight session of gains as traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates this year.

The latest U.S. consumer price index report eased fears that President Donald Trump’s tariffs would trigger a fresh wave of inflation, while signs of a cooling labor market — including rising jobless claims and softer hiring data — added scope for further policy easing.

Markets are now almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut in September, with an increasing contingent positioning for a more aggressive 50-basis-point move. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reinforced this dovish tilt, urging the Fed to deliver multiple reductions before year-end and suggesting the first step could be a half-point cut. Such a move would further weaken the dollar and compress bond yields, boosting the relative appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Beyond rate expectations, bullion was supported by heightened geopolitical risks ahead of Friday’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.

While the White House has described the encounter as an opportunity for dialogue, Trump issued a pointed warning late Wednesday, stating that Russia would face “very severe consequences” if Putin refuses to end the Ukraine war. Although specifics were not disclosed, Trump has previously hinted at imposing tougher economic sanctions should the talks fail to make progress.

The combination of dovish Fed expectations and escalating geopolitical uncertainty has kept safe-haven demand for gold robust. Traders are also weighing the possibility that a breakdown in U.S.–Russia talks could fuel risk aversion across broader markets, potentially amplifying flows into precious metals.

In the near term, gold’s trajectory will be influenced by upcoming U.S. data releases — including the Producer Price Index, retail sales, and weekly jobless claims — as well as developments from the Alaska talks. If the Fed signals openness to a 50-basis-point cut and geopolitical tensions escalate, bullion could test new record highs in the coming weeks. Conversely, signs of diplomatic progress or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data could temper momentum.