Oil falls after OPEC+ hike

WTI crude oil futures fell toward $66.5 per barrel on Monday as traders digested OPEC+’s decision to raise output and growing geopolitical uncertainty.

The group confirmed a widely expected production increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, completing the phased reversal of voluntary cuts made in 2023. While this move had been anticipated, it reinforced expectations that global oil supply may outpace demand later this year, potentially boosting inventories and weighing further on prices.

Market participants are now questioning whether OPEC+ will pause additional supply hikes beyond September, especially given the fragile demand outlook. Some members have voiced concerns that further increases could destabilize prices amid signs of weakening economic growth across major consumer regions, including the US, Europe, and parts of Asia.

Meanwhile, soft US jobs data heightened concerns over a slowing economy, particularly as the Trump administration’s recent wave of tariffs adds pressure to both household and business spending. Analysts noted that weaker labor market indicators could translate into softer fuel demand in the months ahead, compounding bearish sentiment.

Geopolitical risks also remain in focus. President Trump has renewed threats of imposing secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian crude, specifically warning India, which has become one of Moscow's largest oil customers since 2022. Should these measures take effect as soon as August 8, global trade flows could be disrupted, potentially tightening regional supply in the short term while complicating diplomatic relations and energy security strategies.

In the US, inventories data from the EIA later this week will offer further insight into domestic supply and demand dynamics. Traders are also watching hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico as the Atlantic storm season intensifies, which could impact offshore production and refining capacity.