Brent crude oil futures fluctuated around $64 per barrel on Wednesday, as markets remained on edge ahead of a closely watched OPEC+ meeting set to determine the coalition's next move on production policy.
Oil swings ahead OPEC+ output decision
Traders broadly expect the group to endorse a 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) output increase for July, in line with its phased approach to unwinding pandemic-era cuts. This would follow a similar supply boost already scheduled for June, reinforcing the alliance’s strategy to gradually restore output in response to recovering global demand. However, uncertainty lingered after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that a formal discussion on the July increase had yet to take place, injecting a note of caution into market expectations.
Geopolitical developments further complicated the outlook. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed renewed frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin over a lack of progress in Ukraine peace talks, signaling the potential for new sanctions against Moscow to be introduced as early as this week. Such measures could have far-reaching implications for global energy markets, given Russia’s role as a major crude exporter. The escalating tensions added a layer of geopolitical risk that helped limit the downside for oil prices.
U.S. moves on Chevron
Meanwhile, in a move with implications for global supply chains and diplomatic ties, the U.S. government tightened restrictions on Chevron’s operations in Venezuela. Under a revised license, Chevron may continue to maintain its assets in the country but is now prohibited from exporting Venezuelan crude or expanding its activities. The decision underscores Washington's ongoing pressure campaign against the Maduro regime and further reduces the already limited prospects of Venezuelan oil returning to global markets in the near term.
In Europe, attention shifted toward transatlantic trade relations. EU officials began gathering detailed information on U.S. investments by major European firms after President Trump stepped back from earlier threats to impose heavy tariffs on European goods. While the move provided temporary relief to trade-sensitive sectors, officials in Brussels remain wary of sudden policy shifts and are preparing countermeasures in case protectionist measures resurface. The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-EU trade dynamics added to the broader atmosphere of caution influencing global commodity markets.
