European natural gas futures climbed toward €37 per megawatt-hour, building on last week’s 3.9% gain, as market anxiety over supply disruptions continued to intensify.
TTF prices extend gains to €37/MWh
The latest rally was fueled by a series of unplanned capacity cuts at key Norwegian gas infrastructure, which have raised fresh concerns about near-term supply stability ahead of the critical summer storage injection season. Notably, prices rose after field operator Equinor announced extended maintenance at the massive Troll gas field due to external power supply issues, adding to simultaneous outages at other major sites, including Nyhamna and Aasta Hansteen.
According to a regulatory update on the Gassco website, Equinor has extended a partial outage at Troll until May 30 following a compressor failure. The disruption, which began shortly after a routine one-day operational test on May 21, has cut daily output by approximately 34.6 million cubic metres, leaving the field's effective capacity at around 90 mcm/d. Troll is Norway’s largest gas field and a crucial component of Europe’s energy supply, particularly since Russian pipeline exports have drastically declined in the wake of the Ukraine war and sanctions.
As the continent’s leading gas exporter, Norway is under growing pressure to maintain steady and predictable flows. Any sustained or overlapping outages raise concerns about Europe’s ability to rebuild inventories before the next heating season. Currently, EU gas storage levels stand at just 45.3%, well below the seasonal norm for late May, prompting fears that an extended disruption could leave the region vulnerable to price shocks or shortages later in the year.
Markets remain sensitive to supply instability
Compounding the situation are ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly the deteriorating outlook for a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine. As peace prospects fade and military activity in Eastern Europe intensifies, markets remain highly sensitive to any signs of further supply instability. The broader risk premium is also being supported by potential LNG competition from Asia, where rising temperatures and robust demand in countries like Japan and South Korea could tighten global liquefied natural gas availability for European buyers.
In this context, traders and utilities are closely monitoring Norwegian flow data, weather forecasts, and geopolitical developments, with volatility likely to remain elevated. Analysts warn that even minor disruptions could have outsized impacts on prices in the current environment, especially given the relatively low levels of spare capacity in the global gas market.
