Copper futures in the US fell below $4.58 per pound on Tuesday, extending their decline from the previous week as a surge in North American supply erased the metal’s premium in US commodity markets.
Copper holds recent pullback
The retreat in prices reflects growing concerns about a potential oversupply, especially after the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) doubled its forecast for this year’s global surplus to nearly 300,000 tonnes. The revision was largely driven by robust ore output from South America, particularly Chile and Peru, where production has rebounded strongly after earlier disruptions.
The rising threat of a global glut prompted foreign traders to unwind long positions in US copper futures, many of which were initiated in response to former President Donald Trump’s announcement of a probe into potential tariffs on imported copper. That investigation, currently being conducted by the Department of Commerce, remains open and continues to inject uncertainty into the market.
US copper stocks rise
At the same time, US copper inventories have seen a sharp rise, reflecting a shift in trade flows. As international producers rerouted shipments to the US to preemptively mitigate tariff exposure, domestic stockpiles swelled. Meanwhile, inventories at the London Metal Exchange (LME) have declined, indicating a net movement of physical copper back into the United States. This has narrowed the spread between US and London copper futures, further weighing on domestic prices.
Although the White House has recently pursued trade negotiations with key partners in an attempt to ease tensions and stabilize supply chains, the unresolved tariff probe casts a shadow over the market. Manufacturers and importers remain wary, uncertain whether policy will lean toward protectionism or cooperative trade frameworks in the months ahead.
