Copper futures slid to around $4.57 per pound on Thursday, marking a second consecutive session of losses as persistent global trade uncertainties continued to erode market sentiment.
Copper prices decline amid trade uncertainty
Although the recently announced 90-day tariff reduction agreement between the United States and China was seen as a tentative step toward easing tensions, analysts warned that the lack of a comprehensive, long-term trade resolution continues to cast a shadow over the global economic outlook. This lingering uncertainty has kept investors cautious, particularly given the strategic positioning of copper as a key industrial metal sensitive to shifts in global growth and manufacturing activity.
Adding to the cautious tone, US policymakers reaffirmed their commitment to reducing dependence on Chinese imports and diversifying critical supply chains, further stoking concerns about prolonged disruptions to global trade flows and investment plans. The evolving geopolitical landscape, combined with regulatory shifts in key economies, is increasingly seen as a structural headwind for copper demand, especially from the construction, electronics, and renewable energy sectors, which are heavily reliant on stable trade dynamics.
ICSG revised 2025 global copper surplus forecast
Further dampening market sentiment, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) sharply revised its 2025 global copper surplus forecast, doubling its estimate to nearly 300,000 tonnes. The revision was driven by expectations of both rising mine and refined production and weakening demand growth amid an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. The group noted that output from key producers, including South America and Africa, is set to expand as new capacity comes online, while usage growth rates have been revised downward from previous projections made in September 2024. In its statement, the ICSG emphasized: “In view of the uncertainty surrounding international trade policy, which is likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand, usage growth rates have been revised down compared to the group’s September 2024 forecasts.”
With both supply-side expansion and demand-side fragility taking hold, market participants are bracing for a potentially prolonged period of oversupply in the copper market, unless a stronger-than-expected rebound in global manufacturing or infrastructure investment emerges to offset the bearish fundamentals.
