Bitcoin opens FOMC week at key support, dominance nears peak
Press Hub UCapital
Share:
Bitcoin enters the first full week of May trading near its yearly open at $93,500, a level viewed by analysts as critical support ahead of a highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision. While BTC price briefly dipped to $93,350 at the weekly close, sentiment among traders remains broadly bullish as macro and technical drivers take center stage.
Liquidity remains concentrated around the spot price, with ask-side clusters now forming near $96,420, according to CoinGlass. Popular trader CrypNuevo outlined two bullish setups: either a move to new local highs around $98,000, triggering liquidations and upward momentum, or a successful retest of the 1D50EMA. A CME gap near $97,000 is also in focus, as recent gaps have closed within days, suggesting a potential short-term magnet for price.
On the downside, technical analyst Rekt Capital continues to emphasize the $93,500 range low as a critical level for confirming a broader reclaim of the current trading range. Failure to hold may invite deeper correction, potentially targeting $91.5K–$92.5K, a range cited by Michaël van de Poppe as an ideal accumulation zone during pre-FOMC volatility.
All Eyes on Powell and the Fed The May 7 FOMC meeting is the week’s primary macro event, with Chair Jerome Powell expected to deliver guidance that could significantly impact crypto and risk assets. While markets broadly expect no change to rates, growing White House pressure—including direct calls from President Trump for rate cuts—has amplified the importance of Powell’s tone. Despite this, CME FedWatch Tool places the probability of a rate cut at just 5.2%, with June pricing also moderating. Trading firms such as Material Indicators emphasize that Powell’s post-meeting language, rather than the rate decision itself, will "move markets." Bitcoin historically sees pre-FOMC corrections, and with rising fears of stagflation and recession, traders remain highly sensitive to macro cues.
Recession Fears and Risk Assets Recent data points to a growing risk of U.S. economic contraction. Jobless claims, due May 8, and Coinbase earnings could inject additional volatility. Consumer sentiment surveys suggest that 72% of Americans now expect a recession within the next 12 months, the highest level in two years. Last week’s GDP miss and soft ISM figures add weight to this view, while equity markets continue to recover on hopes that the Fed might be nearing the end of its hawkish cycle.
BTC Dominance Approaches Final Leg of Macro Uptrend Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance has reached 65%, its highest since 2021, prompting talk of a looming reversal. Analyst Rekt Capital believes this may mark the final leg of BTC’s macro dominance uptrend, potentially peaking near 71%, a level that historically precedes a broad altcoin season. However, others such as Thomas Fahrer argue that this cycle is structurally different due to institutional accumulation via ETFs and corporate balance sheets, which may delay or mute the typical altcoin rotation.
Sentiment Turns from Fear to FOMO Sentiment is also shifting. According to Santiment, social media trends are now skewed toward higher BTC price expectations, a reversal from April’s “ideal buy zone” narrative. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has stabilized in neutral territory, but growing optimism could introduce FOMO dynamics that risk exhausting buying power at key resistance zones.
Outlook: Range-Bound for Now, With Catalyst Risk Ahead With Bitcoin consolidating around its yearly open, the next move hinges on Wednesday’s FOMC outcome and Powell’s forward guidance. A dovish tilt or acknowledgment of economic fragility could push BTC toward the $97K–$98K area, while a hawkish tone may test support below $93.5K. Traders should be prepared for elevated volatility, particularly as macro and on-chain narratives intersect in a critical week for both crypto and global markets.
Liquidity remains concentrated around the spot price, with ask-side clusters now forming near $96,420, according to CoinGlass. Popular trader CrypNuevo outlined two bullish setups: either a move to new local highs around $98,000, triggering liquidations and upward momentum, or a successful retest of the 1D50EMA. A CME gap near $97,000 is also in focus, as recent gaps have closed within days, suggesting a potential short-term magnet for price.
On the downside, technical analyst Rekt Capital continues to emphasize the $93,500 range low as a critical level for confirming a broader reclaim of the current trading range. Failure to hold may invite deeper correction, potentially targeting $91.5K–$92.5K, a range cited by Michaël van de Poppe as an ideal accumulation zone during pre-FOMC volatility.
All Eyes on Powell and the Fed The May 7 FOMC meeting is the week’s primary macro event, with Chair Jerome Powell expected to deliver guidance that could significantly impact crypto and risk assets. While markets broadly expect no change to rates, growing White House pressure—including direct calls from President Trump for rate cuts—has amplified the importance of Powell’s tone. Despite this, CME FedWatch Tool places the probability of a rate cut at just 5.2%, with June pricing also moderating. Trading firms such as Material Indicators emphasize that Powell’s post-meeting language, rather than the rate decision itself, will "move markets." Bitcoin historically sees pre-FOMC corrections, and with rising fears of stagflation and recession, traders remain highly sensitive to macro cues.
Recession Fears and Risk Assets Recent data points to a growing risk of U.S. economic contraction. Jobless claims, due May 8, and Coinbase earnings could inject additional volatility. Consumer sentiment surveys suggest that 72% of Americans now expect a recession within the next 12 months, the highest level in two years. Last week’s GDP miss and soft ISM figures add weight to this view, while equity markets continue to recover on hopes that the Fed might be nearing the end of its hawkish cycle.
BTC Dominance Approaches Final Leg of Macro Uptrend Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance has reached 65%, its highest since 2021, prompting talk of a looming reversal. Analyst Rekt Capital believes this may mark the final leg of BTC’s macro dominance uptrend, potentially peaking near 71%, a level that historically precedes a broad altcoin season. However, others such as Thomas Fahrer argue that this cycle is structurally different due to institutional accumulation via ETFs and corporate balance sheets, which may delay or mute the typical altcoin rotation.
Sentiment Turns from Fear to FOMO Sentiment is also shifting. According to Santiment, social media trends are now skewed toward higher BTC price expectations, a reversal from April’s “ideal buy zone” narrative. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has stabilized in neutral territory, but growing optimism could introduce FOMO dynamics that risk exhausting buying power at key resistance zones.
Outlook: Range-Bound for Now, With Catalyst Risk Ahead With Bitcoin consolidating around its yearly open, the next move hinges on Wednesday’s FOMC outcome and Powell’s forward guidance. A dovish tilt or acknowledgment of economic fragility could push BTC toward the $97K–$98K area, while a hawkish tone may test support below $93.5K. Traders should be prepared for elevated volatility, particularly as macro and on-chain narratives intersect in a critical week for both crypto and global markets.