CBOT soybeans risk drop to $10.36¾ on technical correction
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CBOT soybean futures for July delivery (SN25) may retest the May 1 low of $10.36-3/4 per bushel, according to technical analysis by Reuters' market analyst Wang Tao. The current pullback is interpreted as part of a wave c pattern, expected to retrace or fully unwind the preceding wave b recovery from that same May 1 low. That bounce followed a broader corrective decline from the $10.67-1/4 peak.
Short-term resistance is seen at $10.55-1/2. A sustained break above this level could extend the rebound toward the $10.61-1/2 to $10.67-1/4 range, but failure to hold would validate further weakness. In the broader context, the move from the December 2024 low of $9.66 appears to have completed a wave C near the 61.8% Fibonacci projection level at $10.71-1/2. This suggests the market may have already topped in this structure, opening the way for a deeper correction phase.
Technically, unless soybeans clear key resistance levels decisively, the bias remains bearish with a high probability of revisiting recent lows. A break below $10.36-3/4 could open further downside in the short term, particularly if broader agricultural sentiment remains pressured by weather, macro trends, or spillover weakness from other commodities such as soyoil and corn.
Short-term resistance is seen at $10.55-1/2. A sustained break above this level could extend the rebound toward the $10.61-1/2 to $10.67-1/4 range, but failure to hold would validate further weakness. In the broader context, the move from the December 2024 low of $9.66 appears to have completed a wave C near the 61.8% Fibonacci projection level at $10.71-1/2. This suggests the market may have already topped in this structure, opening the way for a deeper correction phase.
Technically, unless soybeans clear key resistance levels decisively, the bias remains bearish with a high probability of revisiting recent lows. A break below $10.36-3/4 could open further downside in the short term, particularly if broader agricultural sentiment remains pressured by weather, macro trends, or spillover weakness from other commodities such as soyoil and corn.