Japanese rubber up 4th day on tariff easing, weak yen boost

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Japanese rubber futures extended their gains on Friday, closing out the week higher amid a softer yen and renewed optimism over U.S.–China trade negotiations. The October delivery contract on the Osaka Exchange rose by 2.9 yen, or 0.99%, to settle at 296.9 yen per kilogram, marking a weekly gain of 2.63%.

Investor sentiment was lifted after China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed that it is "evaluating" a U.S. proposal to reopen tariff talks, signaling a potential shift in tone that markets interpreted as a step toward de-escalation. These developments contributed to a broader rally across risk assets, including commodities linked to global trade and manufacturing activity.

Natural rubber also found support from rising oil prices, which boost the competitiveness of natural rubber relative to synthetic alternatives derived from crude. This correlation often drives speculative flows in rubber futures, particularly in the absence of strong demand-side data during regional holidays. In currency markets, the dollar traded at 145.17 yen after reaching an intraday high of 145.91—the strongest level since April 10. The weaker yen enhances the appeal of yen-denominated contracts to international buyers, further supporting OSE rubber prices.

Additional support came from weather concerns. Thailand’s meteorological agency issued warnings for heavy rainfall and potential flash floods in the country’s southern regions between May 2 and May 5. As a key global producer, adverse weather in Thailand can disrupt supply and provide bullish momentum in rubber pricing. The front-month May contract on Singapore’s SICOM platform also reflected the stronger tone, rising 1% to 168.2 U.S. cents per kilogram.

Trading activity remains light across Asia due to public holidays. Chinese markets are closed through May 5 and will resume on Tuesday, while Japanese markets will pause from May 5–6, with trading resuming on Wednesday, May 7. As the next trading week opens, price action will likely remain sensitive to further developments in U.S.–China trade discussions and currency movements.