Bitcoin Nears $100K as On-Chain Data Points to Breakout
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Bitcoin’s sustained advance toward the psychological $100,000 threshold is drawing renewed attention from market participants, as on-chain indicators increasingly point to a structurally sound rally in the making. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $96,091, reflecting a 3.6% weekly gain and extending the recovery that began following April’s brief correction.
This latest leg higher appears to be supported by gradually strengthening momentum rather than speculative surges, as confirmed by on-chain data. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr. from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s momentum ratio—an indicator derived from a composite of network activity—has reached the 0.8 level, entering what he defines as the “start” rally zone.
Historically, such thresholds have often marked inflection points in bull cycles, helping to differentiate between consolidation and breakout phases.
In a recent note, Adler mapped out three potential paths for Bitcoin’s medium-term performance. The optimistic case envisions the momentum ratio surpassing 1.0 and sustaining that level, which would align with the kind of structural breakout seen during the major bull markets of 2017 and 2021. Should this scenario unfold, Bitcoin could accelerate toward the $150,000–$175,000 range, supported by cyclical capital inflows and re-leveraging across spot and derivatives markets.
Alternatively, the base case assumes the momentum ratio fluctuates between 0.8 and 1.0, suggesting a period of elevated but range-bound activity. Under this dynamic, Bitcoin would likely oscillate between $90,000 and $110,000 as market participants remain cautiously constructive but refrain from aggressive positioning until macro signals or liquidity conditions shift further.
The downside risk scenario remains in play if the momentum ratio were to slip below 0.75. Such a move could indicate early profit-taking by short-term holders, potentially triggering a correction toward the $70,000–$85,000 region. However, Adler notes that given the recent washout in April, such a retracement appears less probable in the current environment.
Supporting the bullish bias, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan highlights renewed accumulation behavior among short-term holders—wallets that tend to hold assets for one day to one week. This cohort, whose activity patterns preceded major rallies earlier in 2024, has begun to accumulate again, echoing trends observed prior to historical breakout phases.
The convergence of rising realized cap among younger UTXOs and a firming macro backdrop suggests that market structure is once again aligning in Bitcoin’s favor. If these trends hold, the $100,000 resistance could soon be challenged decisively, paving the way for broader market participation and renewed upside in both Bitcoin and high-beta altcoins.
Traders will be closely monitoring momentum thresholds, short-term holder behavior, and funding conditions across derivatives markets in the coming sessions, as the probability of a breakout scenario continues to build.
This latest leg higher appears to be supported by gradually strengthening momentum rather than speculative surges, as confirmed by on-chain data. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr. from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s momentum ratio—an indicator derived from a composite of network activity—has reached the 0.8 level, entering what he defines as the “start” rally zone.
Historically, such thresholds have often marked inflection points in bull cycles, helping to differentiate between consolidation and breakout phases.
In a recent note, Adler mapped out three potential paths for Bitcoin’s medium-term performance. The optimistic case envisions the momentum ratio surpassing 1.0 and sustaining that level, which would align with the kind of structural breakout seen during the major bull markets of 2017 and 2021. Should this scenario unfold, Bitcoin could accelerate toward the $150,000–$175,000 range, supported by cyclical capital inflows and re-leveraging across spot and derivatives markets.
Alternatively, the base case assumes the momentum ratio fluctuates between 0.8 and 1.0, suggesting a period of elevated but range-bound activity. Under this dynamic, Bitcoin would likely oscillate between $90,000 and $110,000 as market participants remain cautiously constructive but refrain from aggressive positioning until macro signals or liquidity conditions shift further.
The downside risk scenario remains in play if the momentum ratio were to slip below 0.75. Such a move could indicate early profit-taking by short-term holders, potentially triggering a correction toward the $70,000–$85,000 region. However, Adler notes that given the recent washout in April, such a retracement appears less probable in the current environment.
Supporting the bullish bias, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan highlights renewed accumulation behavior among short-term holders—wallets that tend to hold assets for one day to one week. This cohort, whose activity patterns preceded major rallies earlier in 2024, has begun to accumulate again, echoing trends observed prior to historical breakout phases.
The convergence of rising realized cap among younger UTXOs and a firming macro backdrop suggests that market structure is once again aligning in Bitcoin’s favor. If these trends hold, the $100,000 resistance could soon be challenged decisively, paving the way for broader market participation and renewed upside in both Bitcoin and high-beta altcoins.
Traders will be closely monitoring momentum thresholds, short-term holder behavior, and funding conditions across derivatives markets in the coming sessions, as the probability of a breakout scenario continues to build.