S&P 500 Slumps in Worst 100-Day Start Since 1973 on Policy Woes
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The U.S. equity market is off to its weakest presidential start in over five decades, as heightened geopolitical risk, aggressive tariff implementation, and mounting friction with the Federal Reserve have combined to dampen investor sentiment. As of April 30, the S&P 500 is down 7.3% since President Donald Trump’s second-term inauguration on January 20, marking the index’s worst 100-day performance under any U.S. president since Richard Nixon’s second term in 1973.
The pressure has not been limited to large-cap equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined 6.8% over the same period, its weakest post-inauguration stretch in over 50 years. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite has dropped 11%, posting its worst 100-day return under a sitting or returning president since George W. Bush’s first term in 2001, at the tail end of the dot-com correction. The tech-heavy index’s underperformance reflects growing concerns over trade-exposed growth sectors and policy-driven earnings headwinds.
President Trump, however, remains publicly upbeat. Speaking at a campaign-style event in Michigan on Tuesday, he touted his early-term policy actions while escalating his criticism of the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell. “I have a Fed person who is not really doing a good job,” Trump said, underscoring his long-standing frustration with the central bank’s pace of monetary easing. While offering a surface-level gesture of respect for Fed independence, Trump again claimed superior knowledge of interest rate policy, a stance that is increasingly unnerving markets already navigating an uncertain policy environment.
The administration’s renewed tariff regime—particularly toward China—has led to significant downward revisions in global growth forecasts and reinforced risk-off positioning across equities. Trump’s aggressive trade stance, paired with open pressure on monetary policy, has raised fears over deteriorating Fed independence, an issue that continues to weigh on valuation multiples and market stability.
Money markets are pricing in an increased probability of rate cuts in the second half of the year, though the Fed has signaled caution amid mixed economic data and political noise. Meanwhile, volatility could rise further as key earnings reports from Big Tech—Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon—are expected this week, providing another critical data point for forward guidance amid an already fragile market backdrop.
In sum, the first 100 days of Trump’s second term have delivered a historically weak performance for U.S. equities, driven by a confluence of political risk, policy divergence, and global macro uncertainty. For investors, the coming weeks will be pivotal in assessing whether earnings, monetary policy, or trade developments will serve as a catalyst for stabilization—or renewed downside.
The pressure has not been limited to large-cap equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined 6.8% over the same period, its weakest post-inauguration stretch in over 50 years. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite has dropped 11%, posting its worst 100-day return under a sitting or returning president since George W. Bush’s first term in 2001, at the tail end of the dot-com correction. The tech-heavy index’s underperformance reflects growing concerns over trade-exposed growth sectors and policy-driven earnings headwinds.
President Trump, however, remains publicly upbeat. Speaking at a campaign-style event in Michigan on Tuesday, he touted his early-term policy actions while escalating his criticism of the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell. “I have a Fed person who is not really doing a good job,” Trump said, underscoring his long-standing frustration with the central bank’s pace of monetary easing. While offering a surface-level gesture of respect for Fed independence, Trump again claimed superior knowledge of interest rate policy, a stance that is increasingly unnerving markets already navigating an uncertain policy environment.
The administration’s renewed tariff regime—particularly toward China—has led to significant downward revisions in global growth forecasts and reinforced risk-off positioning across equities. Trump’s aggressive trade stance, paired with open pressure on monetary policy, has raised fears over deteriorating Fed independence, an issue that continues to weigh on valuation multiples and market stability.
Money markets are pricing in an increased probability of rate cuts in the second half of the year, though the Fed has signaled caution amid mixed economic data and political noise. Meanwhile, volatility could rise further as key earnings reports from Big Tech—Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon—are expected this week, providing another critical data point for forward guidance amid an already fragile market backdrop.
In sum, the first 100 days of Trump’s second term have delivered a historically weak performance for U.S. equities, driven by a confluence of political risk, policy divergence, and global macro uncertainty. For investors, the coming weeks will be pivotal in assessing whether earnings, monetary policy, or trade developments will serve as a catalyst for stabilization—or renewed downside.