Bitcoin at critical crossroads: sustainable rally or double-top risk?
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Bitcoin (BTC) has recently surpassed the short-term holders' realized price of $91,000, driven by favorable market sentiment stemming from US President Donald Trump's decision to significantly lower proposed tariffs on China from 145%. This announcement boosted risk-on assets broadly, fueling a 5.6% rise in BTC over the past 24 hours and marking its return to the low $90,000s for the first time since March.
However, market observers remain cautious regarding the sustainability of this upward momentum. CryptoQuant analyst Avocado_onchain highlights important behavioral trends among Bitcoin's short-term investors—specifically those holding for 1–3 months. This cohort traditionally enters the market during bullish phases, often transitioning into longer holding periods of 3–6 months during market downturns. In contrast, during strong rallies, these holders frequently capitalize on rising prices by selling their holdings to newcomers.
Historically, as the market approaches a rally's climax, the 1–3 month holder segment expands significantly, typically exiting their positions as prices retrace toward their realized cost basis. Notably, previous market cycle peaks, particularly during Bitcoin halving events, have consistently surpassed the average realized price of this investor segment.
Avocado_onchain further warns of potential parallels to the double-top formation experienced in 2021. Bitcoin's all-time high of $109,000, achieved in January 2025, significantly exceeded the realized price of short-term holders, suggesting the possibility of a double-top scenario. Given this risk, the analyst advises current market participants to approach with caution rather than aggressively chasing the current upward movement.
Compounding these technical concerns are broader macroeconomic headwinds, including ongoing US-China trade tensions and limited market liquidity. These factors could negatively impact Bitcoin and other risk-on assets. Additionally, analyst Xanrox recently suggested that Bitcoin’s current breakout from a falling wedge pattern might be a trap orchestrated by larger investors to attract retail buying, preceding a potential downturn.
Currently trading at approximately $93,754, Bitcoin's immediate trajectory remains uncertain. Traders and investors should closely monitor market liquidity, geopolitical developments, and behavioral patterns among key investor cohorts to gauge whether this rally represents a sustainable bull market resurgence or merely a temporary high preceding a deeper correction.
However, market observers remain cautious regarding the sustainability of this upward momentum. CryptoQuant analyst Avocado_onchain highlights important behavioral trends among Bitcoin's short-term investors—specifically those holding for 1–3 months. This cohort traditionally enters the market during bullish phases, often transitioning into longer holding periods of 3–6 months during market downturns. In contrast, during strong rallies, these holders frequently capitalize on rising prices by selling their holdings to newcomers.
Historically, as the market approaches a rally's climax, the 1–3 month holder segment expands significantly, typically exiting their positions as prices retrace toward their realized cost basis. Notably, previous market cycle peaks, particularly during Bitcoin halving events, have consistently surpassed the average realized price of this investor segment.
Avocado_onchain further warns of potential parallels to the double-top formation experienced in 2021. Bitcoin's all-time high of $109,000, achieved in January 2025, significantly exceeded the realized price of short-term holders, suggesting the possibility of a double-top scenario. Given this risk, the analyst advises current market participants to approach with caution rather than aggressively chasing the current upward movement.
Compounding these technical concerns are broader macroeconomic headwinds, including ongoing US-China trade tensions and limited market liquidity. These factors could negatively impact Bitcoin and other risk-on assets. Additionally, analyst Xanrox recently suggested that Bitcoin’s current breakout from a falling wedge pattern might be a trap orchestrated by larger investors to attract retail buying, preceding a potential downturn.
Currently trading at approximately $93,754, Bitcoin's immediate trajectory remains uncertain. Traders and investors should closely monitor market liquidity, geopolitical developments, and behavioral patterns among key investor cohorts to gauge whether this rally represents a sustainable bull market resurgence or merely a temporary high preceding a deeper correction.