Bitcoin Faces Pivotal Test at $89K as Traders Eye 10–15% Downside Risk
Press Hub UCapital
Share:
Bitcoin’s recent push toward $89,000 faltered on Monday, with BTC/USD facing firm resistance at the 200-day simple moving average — a level that has historically acted as a major pivot point during both bull and bear markets. After reaching a local high of $88,874, the price has begun to cool, raising the prospect of a short-term correction in the range of 10–15%, according to several traders tracking both technical and macro indicators.
The rejection at the 200-day SMA has sparked renewed caution among market participants. Trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the importance of reclaiming daily closes above the previous range low at ~$90,000 to sustain bullish momentum. For now, he cautions that Bitcoin must hold above $85,000 to avoid slipping back into a broader consolidation or corrective phase. The current pullback follows a brief period of strength that saw Bitcoin shadowing gold’s move to fresh all-time highs—yet the divergence now signals caution for crypto bulls.
Adding to that, trader Roman pointed out that Bitcoin’s daily stochastic RSI is back in overbought territory, a zone that has preceded 10–15% corrections in each of the last four occurrences. With the S&P 500 under pressure and risk appetite deteriorating, a broader shift toward defensiveness in financial markets could amplify downward moves in BTC. The stochastic RSI reading touched the top of its range on April 22, reinforcing the signal for a potential reversal.
Still, not all market voices are aligned on the downside narrative. Trader Cas Abbe sees recent price action as the start of a more sustainable bullish reversal, citing macro tailwinds like a weakening U.S. dollar, record global M2 money supply, and delayed Bitcoin catch-up to gold’s breakout. He also points to on-chain signals such as whale accumulation and the resurgence of the Coinbase premium as supportive of further upside. Abbe contends that the $74K–$75K zone marked the bottom for this cycle and that most altcoins have likely carved out similar lows.
In the short term, the $85,000 support zone will be critical. A clean break below this level could confirm the onset of the anticipated correction, with downside targets falling toward $78,000–$80,000. On the flip side, reclaiming $90,000 would reestablish bullish control and potentially ignite a breakout toward new highs. As volatility rises, traders will need to weigh conflicting signals from momentum oscillators, moving averages, and macro trends—while keeping a close eye on equity market sentiment, which continues to exert influence over crypto price action.
The rejection at the 200-day SMA has sparked renewed caution among market participants. Trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the importance of reclaiming daily closes above the previous range low at ~$90,000 to sustain bullish momentum. For now, he cautions that Bitcoin must hold above $85,000 to avoid slipping back into a broader consolidation or corrective phase. The current pullback follows a brief period of strength that saw Bitcoin shadowing gold’s move to fresh all-time highs—yet the divergence now signals caution for crypto bulls.
Adding to that, trader Roman pointed out that Bitcoin’s daily stochastic RSI is back in overbought territory, a zone that has preceded 10–15% corrections in each of the last four occurrences. With the S&P 500 under pressure and risk appetite deteriorating, a broader shift toward defensiveness in financial markets could amplify downward moves in BTC. The stochastic RSI reading touched the top of its range on April 22, reinforcing the signal for a potential reversal.
Still, not all market voices are aligned on the downside narrative. Trader Cas Abbe sees recent price action as the start of a more sustainable bullish reversal, citing macro tailwinds like a weakening U.S. dollar, record global M2 money supply, and delayed Bitcoin catch-up to gold’s breakout. He also points to on-chain signals such as whale accumulation and the resurgence of the Coinbase premium as supportive of further upside. Abbe contends that the $74K–$75K zone marked the bottom for this cycle and that most altcoins have likely carved out similar lows.
In the short term, the $85,000 support zone will be critical. A clean break below this level could confirm the onset of the anticipated correction, with downside targets falling toward $78,000–$80,000. On the flip side, reclaiming $90,000 would reestablish bullish control and potentially ignite a breakout toward new highs. As volatility rises, traders will need to weigh conflicting signals from momentum oscillators, moving averages, and macro trends—while keeping a close eye on equity market sentiment, which continues to exert influence over crypto price action.