WTI crude oil futures climbed above $62 on Monday, snapping a two-week losing streak. The rebound was driven by U.S. tariff exemptions on some Chinese tech goods and a stronger-than-expected recovery in China’s oil imports.
Oil rises slightly on Monday
March data showed China’s crude imports rose nearly 5% year-on-year, fueled by increased shipments from Iran and Russia as Beijing capitalizes on discounted supplies.
However, oil prices remain under pressure due to persistent trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which continue to cloud the outlook for global economic growth and energy demand. President Trump’s shifting tariff policy—pausing some levies while hinting at new ones on semiconductors—has added a layer of uncertainty for markets.
OPEC lowered demand growth forecast
Adding to the cautious sentiment, OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025–26 by 100,000 barrels per day, citing softer consumption expectations linked to Trump’s tariffs. It now projects annual demand growth of 1.3 million bpd, still higher than the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s estimate of 900,000 and Goldman Sachs’ more conservative 500,000.
Despite signs of slowing demand, Saudi Arabia is advocating for accelerated output increases. Riyadh aims to cool prices and tighten compliance within OPEC, particularly targeting overproducing members like Kazakhstan, in an effort to maintain market stability and reinforce discipline within the group.
