Goldman Sachs cuts oil forecasts amid tariff risks and recession fears
Press Hub UCapital
Share:
Crude oil markets are under renewed pressure as Goldman Sachs sharply revised down its price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2026, citing rising global recession risks and an uncertain path for OPEC+ production. The investment bank now anticipates Brent crude will average $62 per barrel and WTI $58 by December 2025 under its base case — a scenario that assumes the U.S. avoids a recession and global supply expands moderately. By the end of 2026, those figures fall to $55 and $51, respectively.
Goldman’s note, dated April 7, outlines multiple scenarios for oil prices under different macroeconomic and supply dynamics. In its more bearish view — incorporating a typical U.S. recession and stable OPEC+ output — Brent is expected to decline further, to $58 by December 2025 and $50 by December 2026. The forecast becomes more severe in a global GDP slowdown, where Brent would retreat to $54 by late 2025 and $45 by 2026. In a more extreme scenario, with a synchronized global recession and the unwinding of OPEC+ cuts, the bank estimates Brent could plunge to just under $40 by the end of 2026.
This reset in expectations arrives amid heightened volatility in energy and risk markets. President Trump’s Monday announcement of a new round of steep tariffs on China — potentially raising the cost of some imports by 120% — triggered a wave of risk aversion. With the European Union also preparing countermeasures, fears of a protracted global trade war are mounting, threatening to stifle demand growth in energy-intensive sectors and adding downward pressure to crude benchmarks.
On the supply side, Goldman expects eight OPEC+ countries to add modest increments of 130,000 to 140,000 barrels per day in June and July, assuming no major dislocations in production discipline. This measured increase is baked into the bank’s base scenario. However, any significant oversupply resulting from a breakdown in OPEC+ coordination could quickly drive prices below the revised targets.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $64.72 per barrel, while WTI stood at $61.26 — both within range of Goldman’s 2025 projections but vulnerable to further macroeconomic shocks.
For traders, the implications are significant. Oil prices now face a narrow runway for upside unless geopolitical tensions ease or demand surprises to the upside. Goldman’s scenarios reinforce the importance of tracking not only inventory data and OPEC decisions, but also global macro indicators and trade policy shifts. The asymmetric risks are tilted to the downside, and volatility in crude markets may persist well into 2026.
Goldman’s note, dated April 7, outlines multiple scenarios for oil prices under different macroeconomic and supply dynamics. In its more bearish view — incorporating a typical U.S. recession and stable OPEC+ output — Brent is expected to decline further, to $58 by December 2025 and $50 by December 2026. The forecast becomes more severe in a global GDP slowdown, where Brent would retreat to $54 by late 2025 and $45 by 2026. In a more extreme scenario, with a synchronized global recession and the unwinding of OPEC+ cuts, the bank estimates Brent could plunge to just under $40 by the end of 2026.
This reset in expectations arrives amid heightened volatility in energy and risk markets. President Trump’s Monday announcement of a new round of steep tariffs on China — potentially raising the cost of some imports by 120% — triggered a wave of risk aversion. With the European Union also preparing countermeasures, fears of a protracted global trade war are mounting, threatening to stifle demand growth in energy-intensive sectors and adding downward pressure to crude benchmarks.
On the supply side, Goldman expects eight OPEC+ countries to add modest increments of 130,000 to 140,000 barrels per day in June and July, assuming no major dislocations in production discipline. This measured increase is baked into the bank’s base scenario. However, any significant oversupply resulting from a breakdown in OPEC+ coordination could quickly drive prices below the revised targets.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $64.72 per barrel, while WTI stood at $61.26 — both within range of Goldman’s 2025 projections but vulnerable to further macroeconomic shocks.
For traders, the implications are significant. Oil prices now face a narrow runway for upside unless geopolitical tensions ease or demand surprises to the upside. Goldman’s scenarios reinforce the importance of tracking not only inventory data and OPEC decisions, but also global macro indicators and trade policy shifts. The asymmetric risks are tilted to the downside, and volatility in crude markets may persist well into 2026.