Nvidia faces market uncertainty ahead of GTC 2025: key levels
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Nvidia shares closed 1.8% lower on Monday at $119.45, as traders positioned themselves ahead of CEO Jensen Huang’s highly anticipated keynote speech at the GPU Technology Conference (GTC). With the stock already down 13% year-to-date and trading 20% below its January peak, the market is grappling with key concerns, including supply chain disruptions, escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, and increasing competition from AMD, Intel, and emerging AI chipmakers.
The semiconductor sector has faced mounting pressure, with Nvidia’s high-growth narrative being challenged by broader macroeconomic risks. Rising U.S. Treasury yields have weighed on high-valuation tech stocks, leading investors to reassess risk exposure. Uncertainty around potential new tariffs and export restrictions on semiconductor components has further complicated Nvidia’s outlook, particularly in its key data center and AI accelerator businesses. Investors are keen to see whether Huang will provide clarity on Nvidia’s ability to sustain its growth trajectory, particularly in cloud computing, enterprise AI adoption, and the rollout of the next-generation Rubin architecture.
Technically, Nvidia has fallen below its 50-day moving average, currently at $122, and is approaching key support at $115. A sustained breakdown below this level could trigger further downside toward the $105-$100 range, especially if Huang’s speech fails to reignite bullish sentiment. On the upside, a breakout above $130 could indicate renewed buying interest, potentially paving the way for a recovery toward $145-$150. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral territory, suggesting that Nvidia’s next move will depend on fundamental catalysts rather than technical momentum alone.
The company’s ability to maintain high gross margins and meet demand expectations for its Blackwell AI chips will be central to market reactions. Any indication of slowing order volumes or weaker-than-expected enterprise spending on AI infrastructure could dampen sentiment further. Conversely, strong guidance on revenue growth, coupled with supply chain resilience, could ease concerns and support a rebound.
With GTC underway, Nvidia finds itself at a critical juncture. If Huang delivers a confident outlook, reinforcing Nvidia’s market dominance and growth potential, the stock could regain traction. However, if concerns over trade policy, competitive threats, or demand softening persist, downward pressure could intensify. The market is bracing for heightened volatility, with Nvidia’s ability to hold key technical levels determining its near-term trajectory.
The semiconductor sector has faced mounting pressure, with Nvidia’s high-growth narrative being challenged by broader macroeconomic risks. Rising U.S. Treasury yields have weighed on high-valuation tech stocks, leading investors to reassess risk exposure. Uncertainty around potential new tariffs and export restrictions on semiconductor components has further complicated Nvidia’s outlook, particularly in its key data center and AI accelerator businesses. Investors are keen to see whether Huang will provide clarity on Nvidia’s ability to sustain its growth trajectory, particularly in cloud computing, enterprise AI adoption, and the rollout of the next-generation Rubin architecture.
Technically, Nvidia has fallen below its 50-day moving average, currently at $122, and is approaching key support at $115. A sustained breakdown below this level could trigger further downside toward the $105-$100 range, especially if Huang’s speech fails to reignite bullish sentiment. On the upside, a breakout above $130 could indicate renewed buying interest, potentially paving the way for a recovery toward $145-$150. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral territory, suggesting that Nvidia’s next move will depend on fundamental catalysts rather than technical momentum alone.
The company’s ability to maintain high gross margins and meet demand expectations for its Blackwell AI chips will be central to market reactions. Any indication of slowing order volumes or weaker-than-expected enterprise spending on AI infrastructure could dampen sentiment further. Conversely, strong guidance on revenue growth, coupled with supply chain resilience, could ease concerns and support a rebound.
With GTC underway, Nvidia finds itself at a critical juncture. If Huang delivers a confident outlook, reinforcing Nvidia’s market dominance and growth potential, the stock could regain traction. However, if concerns over trade policy, competitive threats, or demand softening persist, downward pressure could intensify. The market is bracing for heightened volatility, with Nvidia’s ability to hold key technical levels determining its near-term trajectory.