Bitcoin’s 4-Year cycle tested as institutional adoption grows
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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) continues its bullish trajectory, challenging the long-standing four-year market cycle that has historically dictated crypto price action. With institutional inflows surging and US policy shifting in favor of digital assets, investors are questioning whether 2026 will mark another major pullback—or if Bitcoin has entered a new market paradigm.
Institutional Momentum and Policy Shifts Reshape Market Structure
Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, argues that Bitcoin’s traditional cycle of three bullish years followed by a bear phase may no longer hold. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 has cemented BTC’s legitimacy among institutional players, leading to record-breaking capital inflows. With Bitcoin now trading at $105,275, the mainstream adoption era is well underway.
Adding to this momentum, President Trump’s recent executive order has positioned digital asset development as a national priority. The directive not only outlines a regulatory framework for crypto but also hints at a "national crypto stockpile", signaling further institutional engagement. Hougan suggests these measures could drive trillions in additional investment, far exceeding previous market projections.
Technical Outlook: Can Bitcoin Avoid a 2026 Bear Market?
Bitcoin’s historical pattern of deep corrections—such as the 70% declines in 2014 and 2018—has been driven by market excess, leverage, and regulatory shocks. While leverage continues to grow, the increasing diversification of market participants could prevent severe drawdowns.
Key resistance now sits at $110,000, with $102,674 acting as immediate support. If institutional demand sustains momentum, BTC could challenge BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s long-term target of $700,000. However, a failure to hold above $100,000 could trigger short-term volatility.
Conclusion: A New Era for Bitcoin?
While Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may not be fully broken, the depth and duration of potential corrections are changing. The intersection of institutional adoption, policy clarity, and regulatory support suggests that any future bear market may be shorter and shallower than previous cycles. For now, bulls remain in control, and the crypto train continues moving forward.
Institutional Momentum and Policy Shifts Reshape Market Structure
Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, argues that Bitcoin’s traditional cycle of three bullish years followed by a bear phase may no longer hold. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 has cemented BTC’s legitimacy among institutional players, leading to record-breaking capital inflows. With Bitcoin now trading at $105,275, the mainstream adoption era is well underway.
Adding to this momentum, President Trump’s recent executive order has positioned digital asset development as a national priority. The directive not only outlines a regulatory framework for crypto but also hints at a "national crypto stockpile", signaling further institutional engagement. Hougan suggests these measures could drive trillions in additional investment, far exceeding previous market projections.
Technical Outlook: Can Bitcoin Avoid a 2026 Bear Market?
Bitcoin’s historical pattern of deep corrections—such as the 70% declines in 2014 and 2018—has been driven by market excess, leverage, and regulatory shocks. While leverage continues to grow, the increasing diversification of market participants could prevent severe drawdowns.
Key resistance now sits at $110,000, with $102,674 acting as immediate support. If institutional demand sustains momentum, BTC could challenge BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s long-term target of $700,000. However, a failure to hold above $100,000 could trigger short-term volatility.
Conclusion: A New Era for Bitcoin?
While Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may not be fully broken, the depth and duration of potential corrections are changing. The intersection of institutional adoption, policy clarity, and regulatory support suggests that any future bear market may be shorter and shallower than previous cycles. For now, bulls remain in control, and the crypto train continues moving forward.