Bitcoin: the playbook of Arthur Hayes for the big market players
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Bitcoin’s latest price action is testing investors’ patience as market dynamics shift under the influence of monetary policies and global liquidity flows. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO at Maelstrom, has issued a bold forecast, arguing that while Bitcoin remains in a broader bull cycle, a significant pullback to the $70,000–$75,000 range could be imminent before an eventual surge to $250,000.
His analysis hinges on two pivotal factors: central bank liquidity contraction and the ongoing political battle between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Both elements, he contends, could trigger a risk-off event in global markets, temporarily disrupting Bitcoin’s parabolic momentum.
Hayes’ Two Scenarios for Buying Bitcoin
Hayes outlines two key conditions under which he would increase his exposure to Bitcoin.
First, if Bitcoin retraces to the $70,000–$75,000 range, Hayes sees this as an attractive re-entry point. He notes that Maelstrom has rotated a portion of its holdings into USDe stablecoins, positioning itself to buy Bitcoin aggressively should such a drop materialize.
Second, if Bitcoin decisively breaks above $110,000 on strong volume, Hayes will abandon his correction thesis and re-enter at a higher level. This scenario would indicate sustained bullish momentum, negating the likelihood of a near-term pullback.
The Liquidity Squeeze and Macro Implications
Hayes attributes Bitcoin’s recent fragility to the restrictive monetary policies of major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, People’s Bank of China, and Bank of Japan.
The US 10-year Treasury yield remains a key macro signal, and Hayes argues that if yields spike to 5%–6%, speculative assets—including Bitcoin—could see an aggressive liquidation phase. However, he also asserts that should financial stress intensify, the Federal Reserve will likely capitulate to market pressures and resume large-scale liquidity injections.
Trump’s aggressive tariff threats and deregulation push could also exacerbate inflationary risks, increasing the likelihood of future monetary easing, which would ultimately be bullish for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Role in a Broader Risk-Off Event
Hayes highlights Bitcoin’s rising short-term correlation to the Nasdaq 100, arguing that in the event of a bond market shock, Bitcoin could lead the risk-off event, followed by equity markets. However, as central banks inevitably step in to restore liquidity, Bitcoin would likely be the first asset class to rebound sharply.
At present, BTC is trading at $102,530, just below a key resistance zone. With market forces tightening, traders will be watching whether Bitcoin corrects to Hayes’ buy zone or pushes beyond $110,000, forcing sidelined capital back into the market.
His analysis hinges on two pivotal factors: central bank liquidity contraction and the ongoing political battle between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Both elements, he contends, could trigger a risk-off event in global markets, temporarily disrupting Bitcoin’s parabolic momentum.
Hayes’ Two Scenarios for Buying Bitcoin
Hayes outlines two key conditions under which he would increase his exposure to Bitcoin.
First, if Bitcoin retraces to the $70,000–$75,000 range, Hayes sees this as an attractive re-entry point. He notes that Maelstrom has rotated a portion of its holdings into USDe stablecoins, positioning itself to buy Bitcoin aggressively should such a drop materialize.
Second, if Bitcoin decisively breaks above $110,000 on strong volume, Hayes will abandon his correction thesis and re-enter at a higher level. This scenario would indicate sustained bullish momentum, negating the likelihood of a near-term pullback.
The Liquidity Squeeze and Macro Implications
Hayes attributes Bitcoin’s recent fragility to the restrictive monetary policies of major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, People’s Bank of China, and Bank of Japan.
The US 10-year Treasury yield remains a key macro signal, and Hayes argues that if yields spike to 5%–6%, speculative assets—including Bitcoin—could see an aggressive liquidation phase. However, he also asserts that should financial stress intensify, the Federal Reserve will likely capitulate to market pressures and resume large-scale liquidity injections.
Trump’s aggressive tariff threats and deregulation push could also exacerbate inflationary risks, increasing the likelihood of future monetary easing, which would ultimately be bullish for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Role in a Broader Risk-Off Event
Hayes highlights Bitcoin’s rising short-term correlation to the Nasdaq 100, arguing that in the event of a bond market shock, Bitcoin could lead the risk-off event, followed by equity markets. However, as central banks inevitably step in to restore liquidity, Bitcoin would likely be the first asset class to rebound sharply.
At present, BTC is trading at $102,530, just below a key resistance zone. With market forces tightening, traders will be watching whether Bitcoin corrects to Hayes’ buy zone or pushes beyond $110,000, forcing sidelined capital back into the market.