Gold near $2,650, awaiting US JOLTS data for direction
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Gold prices briefly touched $2,650 before surrendering gains as traders await critical US macroeconomic data. Geopolitical tensions and trade war concerns provide support, while a resilient US Dollar and mixed Fed expectations cap upside potential. Market participants eye the JOLTS Job Openings report for near-term momentum, with Friday’s NFP and Jerome Powell’s speech likely to set the broader tone.
Mixed Drivers Keep Gold Prices in Check
Gold prices remain indecisive, reflecting a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and pressure from a strengthening US Dollar. Investor sentiment is driven by a mix of geopolitical tensions, trade war fears, and speculation over Federal Reserve policy.
Concerns over President-elect Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff plans are fueling market anxiety, keeping gold demand afloat. Persistent geopolitical uncertainties, including Russia’s missile support from North Korea and ongoing turmoil in Ukraine, are further bolstering safe-haven appeal.
However, market conviction that Trump’s policies could reignite inflation and delay the Fed’s easing cycle supports the US Dollar, offsetting upward pressure on gold. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond remains near October lows, adding complexity to the gold trade.
Technical Outlook: Mixed Signals, Key Levels
Gold's technical setup points to a cautious bearish bias. Monday’s breakdown below a four-day ascending channel triggered selling pressure, though mixed oscillators on daily and 4-hour charts suggest traders are hesitant to commit to a strong directional move.
Upside Levels to Watch:
Immediate resistance lies near $2,650, with stronger barriers at $2,666 (last Friday’s high) and $2,678. A break above these levels could lead gold to challenge the psychological $2,700 mark.
Downside Levels to Watch: Support is seen at the overnight low of $2,622-2,621, followed by $2,600. A decisive drop below the 100-day SMA at $2,577 could expose the November swing low at $2,537-2,536. Key Events to Watch
JOLTS Job Openings: The release later today could provide near-term impetus, shaping expectations for labor market conditions ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Fed Chair Powell’s Speech: Scheduled later this week, Powell’s comments will be pivotal in shaping market sentiment on the Fed’s next moves, especially amid increasing bets for a 25 basis point rate cut this month.
Macro Developments: Investors will also monitor geopolitical developments and ongoing US economic data releases, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which showed modest improvement in November.
Conclusion Gold prices are caught in a delicate balance, with conflicting drivers limiting directional conviction. The JOLTS data and upcoming Fed signals are expected to provide clarity, but the overall bearish technical setup suggests gold may face challenges sustaining gains above $2,650. Caution remains warranted until stronger catalysts emerge.
Mixed Drivers Keep Gold Prices in Check
Gold prices remain indecisive, reflecting a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and pressure from a strengthening US Dollar. Investor sentiment is driven by a mix of geopolitical tensions, trade war fears, and speculation over Federal Reserve policy.
Concerns over President-elect Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff plans are fueling market anxiety, keeping gold demand afloat. Persistent geopolitical uncertainties, including Russia’s missile support from North Korea and ongoing turmoil in Ukraine, are further bolstering safe-haven appeal.
However, market conviction that Trump’s policies could reignite inflation and delay the Fed’s easing cycle supports the US Dollar, offsetting upward pressure on gold. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond remains near October lows, adding complexity to the gold trade.
Technical Outlook: Mixed Signals, Key Levels
Gold's technical setup points to a cautious bearish bias. Monday’s breakdown below a four-day ascending channel triggered selling pressure, though mixed oscillators on daily and 4-hour charts suggest traders are hesitant to commit to a strong directional move.
Upside Levels to Watch:
Immediate resistance lies near $2,650, with stronger barriers at $2,666 (last Friday’s high) and $2,678. A break above these levels could lead gold to challenge the psychological $2,700 mark.
Downside Levels to Watch: Support is seen at the overnight low of $2,622-2,621, followed by $2,600. A decisive drop below the 100-day SMA at $2,577 could expose the November swing low at $2,537-2,536. Key Events to Watch
JOLTS Job Openings: The release later today could provide near-term impetus, shaping expectations for labor market conditions ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Fed Chair Powell’s Speech: Scheduled later this week, Powell’s comments will be pivotal in shaping market sentiment on the Fed’s next moves, especially amid increasing bets for a 25 basis point rate cut this month.
Macro Developments: Investors will also monitor geopolitical developments and ongoing US economic data releases, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which showed modest improvement in November.
Conclusion Gold prices are caught in a delicate balance, with conflicting drivers limiting directional conviction. The JOLTS data and upcoming Fed signals are expected to provide clarity, but the overall bearish technical setup suggests gold may face challenges sustaining gains above $2,650. Caution remains warranted until stronger catalysts emerge.