Bought the dip? 3 signs that $90,000 was Bitcoin’s local bottom
Press Hub UCapital
Share:
Bitcoin's sharp rebound from its Nov. 26 low of $90,742 to a high of $95,000 has reignited optimism across the cryptocurrency market. With the total crypto market valuation rising 7.3% to $3.32 trillion between Nov. 26 and Nov. 28, market participants are watching closely for signs that $90,000 marked the local bottom before a potential continuation toward $100,000.
1. Coinbase Premium Index: US Retail Demand Returns
The Coinbase Premium Index—a measure of the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance—has bounced back, signaling a resurgence in US retail demand. Between Nov. 22 and Nov. 26, Bitcoin’s sharp drop coincided with a decline in the index, reaching -0.0387, reflecting reduced demand from US investors. However, the index has since reversed to 0.091, indicating renewed buying interest. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that Bitcoin demand growth is once again in "expansion territory." This signals new investors entering the market, a critical factor for sustained price recovery. According to Moreno, “Demand expansion is what will get Bitcoin higher.”
2. Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Flip Positive
The recovery in Bitcoin’s price aligns with a turnaround in inflows into US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. On Nov. 26, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of $103 million, ending a two-day streak of $558 million in net outflows. The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF led the inflows with $48 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT remained flat for the first time since Nov. 15. To date, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated approximately $30.3 billion in net inflows. Moreover, institutional appetite for Bitcoin investment products remains robust. Data shows inflows of $3.07 billion into Bitcoin-focused investment vehicles for the week ending Nov. 22, representing more than 98% of total digital asset inflows. This renewed institutional interest is a strong bullish indicator, as it suggests increasing confidence in Bitcoin’s potential as an asset class.
3. Bitcoin Balances on Exchanges at 6-Year Lows
Despite the recent price volatility, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have continued to fall, dropping below 2.4 million BTC in November—the lowest level since November 2018. This trend indicates that investors are moving their holdings to self-custody wallets or long-term storage, reducing the available supply on exchanges for potential selling. A decreasing exchange balance typically reflects strong holding sentiment, which can contribute to upward price pressure.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support: If Bitcoin retraces, $90,000 remains a critical psychological and technical support level. Below that, the next key support is $88,762. Resistance: Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 hinges on clearing its all-time high of $99,655. A break above this level could trigger renewed bullish momentum.
Technical Indicators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator suggests persistent bearish momentum in the short term, with the MACD line still below the signal line. However, if demand continues to rise, Bitcoin could reclaim its bullish trajectory.
Conclusion
The convergence of rising US retail demand, renewed institutional inflows, and declining exchange balances suggests that $90,000 could mark Bitcoin’s local bottom. While technical indicators point to potential short-term challenges, strong demand dynamics and a reduced sell-side supply could propel Bitcoin toward its $100,000 target. As always, investors should remain cautious and consider both technical and fundamental factors before making decisions in this volatile market.
1. Coinbase Premium Index: US Retail Demand Returns
The Coinbase Premium Index—a measure of the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance—has bounced back, signaling a resurgence in US retail demand. Between Nov. 22 and Nov. 26, Bitcoin’s sharp drop coincided with a decline in the index, reaching -0.0387, reflecting reduced demand from US investors. However, the index has since reversed to 0.091, indicating renewed buying interest. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that Bitcoin demand growth is once again in "expansion territory." This signals new investors entering the market, a critical factor for sustained price recovery. According to Moreno, “Demand expansion is what will get Bitcoin higher.”
2. Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Flip Positive
The recovery in Bitcoin’s price aligns with a turnaround in inflows into US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. On Nov. 26, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of $103 million, ending a two-day streak of $558 million in net outflows. The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF led the inflows with $48 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT remained flat for the first time since Nov. 15. To date, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated approximately $30.3 billion in net inflows. Moreover, institutional appetite for Bitcoin investment products remains robust. Data shows inflows of $3.07 billion into Bitcoin-focused investment vehicles for the week ending Nov. 22, representing more than 98% of total digital asset inflows. This renewed institutional interest is a strong bullish indicator, as it suggests increasing confidence in Bitcoin’s potential as an asset class.
3. Bitcoin Balances on Exchanges at 6-Year Lows
Despite the recent price volatility, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have continued to fall, dropping below 2.4 million BTC in November—the lowest level since November 2018. This trend indicates that investors are moving their holdings to self-custody wallets or long-term storage, reducing the available supply on exchanges for potential selling. A decreasing exchange balance typically reflects strong holding sentiment, which can contribute to upward price pressure.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support: If Bitcoin retraces, $90,000 remains a critical psychological and technical support level. Below that, the next key support is $88,762. Resistance: Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 hinges on clearing its all-time high of $99,655. A break above this level could trigger renewed bullish momentum.
Technical Indicators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator suggests persistent bearish momentum in the short term, with the MACD line still below the signal line. However, if demand continues to rise, Bitcoin could reclaim its bullish trajectory.
Conclusion
The convergence of rising US retail demand, renewed institutional inflows, and declining exchange balances suggests that $90,000 could mark Bitcoin’s local bottom. While technical indicators point to potential short-term challenges, strong demand dynamics and a reduced sell-side supply could propel Bitcoin toward its $100,000 target. As always, investors should remain cautious and consider both technical and fundamental factors before making decisions in this volatile market.