Key events: US PPI, jobless claims & Central Bank speakers
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Today’s highlights include the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims, with traders watching for any signs of labor market shifts or inflationary pressures that might impact rate expectations. Additional focus is on several central bank speakers, including ECB’s Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell, as markets seek clues on future policy moves.
European Session Lacks Major Data, Focus Shifts to the US
The European session is quiet on data releases, with only the second estimate of Eurozone Q3 GDP and the ECB Meeting Minutes. Markets are expected to pay little attention to these due to their limited relevance for current forecasts.
Main Events in the American Session
US Producer Price Index (PPI) (13:30 GMT / 08:30 ET):
Expectations: The annual PPI is projected at 2.3% (up from 1.8%), with the monthly PPI expected at 0.2%. The Core PPI is anticipated at 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.8% prior) and 0.3% MoM. Implications: The PPI will provide further context to yesterday’s CPI data, helping clarify inflation trends and potentially influencing US dollar movements. An upside surprise could lead to further dollar gains as markets may reassess the likelihood of rate cuts in 2025.
US Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT / 08:30 ET):
Expectations: Initial Claims are forecasted at 223K (vs. 221K prior), while Continuing Claims are expected at 1.88 million (vs. 1.852 million prior).
Implications: Given its timely insight into the labor market, this data could impact rate expectations if Initial Claims deviate significantly from forecasts. Continuing Claims have recently spiked due to temporary factors like hurricanes and strikes, which will also be a point of interest.
Central Bank Speakers
Today includes comments from several key central bank figures, potentially shaping monetary policy expectations:
ECB’s de Guindos (08:30 GMT), BoE’s Mann (13:00 GMT), and Fed’s Barkin, Kugler, Powell, and Williams in the US afternoon session.
Key Focus: Powell’s remarks (20:00 GMT) will be particularly important as markets seek confirmation on a more cautious approach toward rate cuts in 2025.
With inflation and labor market indicators taking center stage, today's data and central bank commentary are expected to influence market sentiment, especially for the US dollar and bond yields.
European Session Lacks Major Data, Focus Shifts to the US
The European session is quiet on data releases, with only the second estimate of Eurozone Q3 GDP and the ECB Meeting Minutes. Markets are expected to pay little attention to these due to their limited relevance for current forecasts.
Main Events in the American Session
US Producer Price Index (PPI) (13:30 GMT / 08:30 ET):
Expectations: The annual PPI is projected at 2.3% (up from 1.8%), with the monthly PPI expected at 0.2%. The Core PPI is anticipated at 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.8% prior) and 0.3% MoM. Implications: The PPI will provide further context to yesterday’s CPI data, helping clarify inflation trends and potentially influencing US dollar movements. An upside surprise could lead to further dollar gains as markets may reassess the likelihood of rate cuts in 2025.
US Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT / 08:30 ET):
Expectations: Initial Claims are forecasted at 223K (vs. 221K prior), while Continuing Claims are expected at 1.88 million (vs. 1.852 million prior).
Implications: Given its timely insight into the labor market, this data could impact rate expectations if Initial Claims deviate significantly from forecasts. Continuing Claims have recently spiked due to temporary factors like hurricanes and strikes, which will also be a point of interest.
Central Bank Speakers
Today includes comments from several key central bank figures, potentially shaping monetary policy expectations:
ECB’s de Guindos (08:30 GMT), BoE’s Mann (13:00 GMT), and Fed’s Barkin, Kugler, Powell, and Williams in the US afternoon session.
Key Focus: Powell’s remarks (20:00 GMT) will be particularly important as markets seek confirmation on a more cautious approach toward rate cuts in 2025.
With inflation and labor market indicators taking center stage, today's data and central bank commentary are expected to influence market sentiment, especially for the US dollar and bond yields.