Black Friday 2025: lackluster in the USA, unstoppable in Italy. Gen Z and e-commerce drive purchases

Wall Street is taking a break today for Thanksgiving, after a strong session yesterday. Tomorrow, markets will reopen only partially, while anticipation grows for potential rate cuts as early as the Fed’s December meeting. With families gathered for the traditional holiday meal, investors are watching Black Friday, hoping for a decisive boost for American retailers. But will there really be a shopping boom?

Black Friday 2025 has arrived, but the discounts don’t seem all that dazzling… For this year’s edition, it appears U.S. consumers will have to wait a bit longer. The reason lies with the Tycoon administration and the heavy burden tariffs are placing on retailers and the broader commercial environment - even during one of the most important and exciting moments for shoppers, who naturally prefer keeping their money in their wallets and waiting for more “tempting” opportunities.

As they prepared for the holiday season, retail chains had to figure out how to absorb the impact of tariffs. One strategy, tested by many during the crucial back-to-school spending period, was raising prices on nonessential items like clothing and home goods while keeping them stable on necessities. But as the holidays approach, shoppers have grown accustomed to searching for discounts that won’t be as deep as those in past Black Friday editions.

Many of the items on sale this week, such as TVs and hair-styling tools, were negotiated with suppliers months ago. These negotiations occurred during peak uncertainty over tariffs, and that is now reflected in the current deals. According to Adobe Inc., online discounts are expected to be more modest this year in categories hit hardest by tariffs: toys, electronics, and appliances.

In the first half of November, according to Stacey Widlitz of SW Retail Advisors, most retailers maintained discounts similar to or less aggressive than in 2023, although some - like Adidas - did push promotions in the U.S. Meanwhile, signs are emerging of more cautious consumers, especially among low-income households. Several discount chains report that economically pressured shoppers are buying fewer items, partly due to rising prices. The result? Shoppers are increasingly focusing on deals, even for everyday essentials. This trend was already visible in July, when many took advantage of Prime Day to stock up on basic goods rather than treat themselves to discretionary purchases.

For retailers, this Black Friday is a delicate balancing act: discounts that are too timid risk delaying purchases, but companies no longer have the abundant inventories of 2022. Target recently reported a 2% drop in inventory, while Walmart increased its stock only slightly - less than sales growth. This indicates more disciplined inventory management and suggests that, at least for now, excessive markdowns are off the table.

But this discipline can hold only if customers show up in large numbers. If Black Friday turns out weak, retailers will be forced to ramp up discounts between Cyber Monday and the holidays, undermining margins and profits after months of effort. For consumers, however, a sluggish shopping season could turn into an advantage: those who don’t find satisfactory deals now might make up for it with a true “Black January.”

Gen Z shoppers are far more likely to buy during Black Friday than older demographic groups, but they are also more conscious of their spending, as suggested by several surveys. The behavior of this youngest adult generation is tied to a broader shift in the U.S. economy, which is moving toward an increasingly wide gap between spending habits of the upper and lower income classes. Analysts call it a “K-shaped” economy, seemingly a byproduct of the looming recession that has defined recent months in America. Gen Z, savvy with social media, searches for the best Black Friday deals without giving up convenience. The generational divide, however, does not extend to the size of businesses Americans feel comfortable buying from: 77% say they are just as interested in purchasing from a small business as from a large one when prices are equal.

Black Friday “Made in Italy”: a €5-billion boom with no limits

Black Friday 2025 is off to a flying start, with an estimated turnover of around €5 billion - nearly 20% more than in 2024 and a remarkable +145% compared with 2018. Digital shopping remains the preferred choice for Italians, though it doesn’t push physical stores aside: shopping now moves within an increasingly hybrid, multichannel ecosystem.

The discount week is also the perfect opportunity to get a head start on Christmas gifts: 66.7% of consumers do so, up from 64.3% last year. According to Confcommercio’s research office, a portion of these purchases - between 10% and 15% - is “additional” rather than substitute spending, indicating that a strong Black Friday also boosts December sales. Over time, however, November itself has gained importance thanks to the promotion boom.

A survey by Format-Confcommercio shows that between 52% and 70.2% of Italians aged 18 to 70 are ready to shop: electronics, fashion, toys, and personal care remain at the top of the list. Despite uncertainty, the desire to seize deals is growing, with consumers increasingly informed, prepared, and digital.

Andrea Pelucchi e Klavis Gjoka