China's jobless rate dips in October, as retail, output cool

China's industrial production and retail sales grew in October, while the jobless rate edged down, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Friday.

Industrial production rose 4.9% year-on-year in October, declining from a 6.5% increase in September, and below the 5.5% consensus forecast cited by FXStreet.

By sector, the value added of mining grew 4.5% year-on-year, and manufacturing rose 4.9%, while the production and supply of electricity, heat power, gas and water increased 5.4%.

The NBS data also showed that retail sales climbed 2.9% year-on-year in October, slightly down from 3.0% in September, but above the 2.7% forecast.

China's urban surveyed unemployment rate was at 5.1% in October, down from 5.2% in September.

Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, commented: "The macro picture into year-end looks like a dragon losing altitude. Not crashing—but gliding lower, wings flapping, waiting for the next thermal. The irony is that Beijing doesn't need to hit the fiscal or monetary panic button to meet this year's 5% growth target. The first three quarters already loaded the scoreboard. That lack of urgency explains the radio silence on stimulus. But the ambitions ahead—Premier Li Qiang's RMB170 trillion gross domestic product goal for 2030, President Xi Jinping's doubling target for 2035—require a marathon strategy with steady policy pacing, not random spurts of intervention."

Lynn Song, ING chief economist, Greater China, echoed the sentiment and said: "There's reduced urgency for new policy support. Stronger-than-expected growth in the first three quarters of the year is likely keeping the economy on track to meet its 2025 growth target without requiring much additional intervention...As such, the recent lull in new stimulus is likely only a pause rather than a reversal of direction. Policymakers may opt to conserve ammunition for next year's growth targets. We still see room for further monetary easing next year, and fiscal support for consumption and strategic industries will likely continue."