Markets Focus on Tariff Talks as Key Data Takes Backseat

This week, financial markets are focused on the ongoing tariff negotiations led by U.S. President Donald Trump, while the macroeconomic calendar offers relatively few significant data releases. Central banks will also be in the spotlight, with minutes from the Fed’s June meeting due Wednesday and several speeches from key policymakers.

Trump stated on Sunday that the United States is close to finalizing multiple trade agreements and will notify countries of tariff hikes by July 9. The new, higher tariffs will come into effect on August 1.

“The president will send letters to several of our trade partners, warning that if progress isn’t made, tariffs will revert to the April 2 level,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNN. In recent days, Trump has floated the possibility of tariffs as high as “60% or 70%,” and on Sunday he threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries aligning with what he called the “anti-American policies” of the BRICS group—which includes Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

Today’s key data include Germany’s May industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, and the Sentix investor confidence index. On Tuesday, Germany and France release their trade balances, while in the U.S., the NFIB small business optimism index and New York Fed inflation expectations are on the docket.

Wednesday will bring China’s June inflation and producer price index (PPI), along with U.S. crude oil inventories, wholesale inventories, and wholesale sales for May. Thursday sees Italian industrial production and U.S. jobless claims. The week closes on Friday with the UK’s May GDP and final June inflation data from France and Germany.

Several central bankers will speak this week. Today, the ECB’s Joachim Nagel and Robert Holzmann are scheduled. On Wednesday, Luis de Guindos and Nagel will again appear. Thursday features remarks from ECB officials Piero Cipollone and François Villeroy, along with Fed members Alberto Musalem and Mary Daly.

Two central bank meetings are also scheduled: the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Wednesday. Markets expect the RBA to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% amid cooling inflation, while the RBNZ is likely to hold rates steady at 3.25%, though earlier forecasts hinted at another 25 bps cut.