ECB Survey: Inflation Perception Steady, Short-Term Expectations Up 25
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In April 2025, the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey shows inflation perception over the past 12 months steady at 3.1%, the lowest since September 2021. However, median inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose 0.2 points to 3.1%, the highest since February 2024. Expectations for three and five years remained stable at 2.5% and 2.1%.
For the first time since July 2021, short-term inflation expectations matched past inflation (both 3.1%). Uncertainty about 12-month inflation expectations increased to June 2024 levels. Nominal income growth expectations for the next year fell slightly to 0.9% from 1.0%. Perceived nominal spending growth over the past year dipped to 4.9%, while expected spending growth over the next year rose to 3.7% from 3.4%.
Consumer outlook on economic growth worsened, dropping to -1.9% from -1.2%. Expected unemployment rose to 10.5% from 10.4%, near the current perceived rate of 9.8%, indicating a stable labor market. The unemployed’s chance to find a job in three months fell from 25.1% to 21.9%, while employed respondents saw a slight drop in job loss risk from 8.6% to 8.4%.
Consumers expect house prices to rise 3.2% in the next year, up from 3.1%. Mortgage interest rate expectations rose to 4.5%. The net share reporting tighter credit access in the past year increased from 20.2% to 21.7%, and those expecting tighter credit in the next year rose from 15.5% to 20.8%. Credit applications in the last three months grew to 15.6% from 15.0%.
For the first time since July 2021, short-term inflation expectations matched past inflation (both 3.1%). Uncertainty about 12-month inflation expectations increased to June 2024 levels. Nominal income growth expectations for the next year fell slightly to 0.9% from 1.0%. Perceived nominal spending growth over the past year dipped to 4.9%, while expected spending growth over the next year rose to 3.7% from 3.4%.
Consumer outlook on economic growth worsened, dropping to -1.9% from -1.2%. Expected unemployment rose to 10.5% from 10.4%, near the current perceived rate of 9.8%, indicating a stable labor market. The unemployed’s chance to find a job in three months fell from 25.1% to 21.9%, while employed respondents saw a slight drop in job loss risk from 8.6% to 8.4%.
Consumers expect house prices to rise 3.2% in the next year, up from 3.1%. Mortgage interest rate expectations rose to 4.5%. The net share reporting tighter credit access in the past year increased from 20.2% to 21.7%, and those expecting tighter credit in the next year rose from 15.5% to 20.8%. Credit applications in the last three months grew to 15.6% from 15.0%.