US export prices edged up 0.1% month-over-month in April 2025, matching the revised increase recorded in March and surprising markets that had anticipated a 0.5% decline.
US export prices unexpectedly rise
The data highlight continued resilience in export pricing, despite mounting global trade frictions and concerns over softer international demand. Notably, the export price index has not posted a monthly decline since September 2024, underscoring the persistence of certain price pressures in global markets.
Agricultural export prices rose by 0.5% in April, rebounding from a 0.2% drop in March. The gain was largely driven by higher prices for fruit and nuts, which more than offset declines in soybean prices, reflecting shifts in commodity markets as seasonal factors and supply dynamics played out. At the same time, nonagricultural export prices also advanced by 0.1% for a second consecutive month. Price gains were seen across consumer goods, capital goods, and automotive vehicles—sectors where demand has held up relatively well. These increases helped balance declines in industrial supplies and materials, which continue to face downward price pressures amid weaker global manufacturing activity.
Annual figures
On an annual basis, US export prices climbed 2% in April, easing from a revised 2.6% gain in March and marking the slowest year-over-year increase in four months. The moderation in the annual growth rate suggests that while exporters have been able to maintain pricing power in some categories, broader price momentum is cooling in line with a softening global growth backdrop.
It is important to note that the export price index compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not directly include the effects of tariffs. However, it can still capture the indirect impact of tariffs and other trade barriers through changes in supply chains, sourcing strategies, and market behavior, which may be influencing both pricing and demand patterns in subtle ways.
Looking ahead, analysts will closely watch whether the resilience in export prices can be sustained, particularly given the uncertain trajectory of global trade relations, the strengthening US dollar, and mounting risks of a broader economic slowdown in key overseas markets.
