China's trade surplus jumped to USD 96.18 billion in April 2025, up from USD 72.04 billion a year earlier and exceeding market expectations of USD 89 billion. The sharp increase was largely driven by an 8.1% year-on-year rise in exports, significantly above forecasts of a 1.9% gain.
China trade surplus beats estimates
While this marked a slowdown from March's 12.4% surge, it reflected strong resilience in Chinese outbound shipments, particularly to Southeast Asia, the EU, and parts of Latin America. This came despite rising external headwinds, including heightened geopolitical tensions and the latest round of US tariffs introduced by the Trump administration.
Meanwhile, imports contracted marginally by 0.2%, defying expectations of a deeper 5.9% drop, and suggesting some stabilization in domestic demand as Beijing ramps up efforts to revive the economy. The government’s recent monetary easing measures, including reserve requirement and interest rate cuts, appear to have cushioned domestic consumption and capital goods imports, especially from key trade partners such as South Korea and Germany.
Trade surplus with the US narrows
The trade surplus with the US narrowed to USD 20.46 billion in April from USD 27.58 billion in March, as Chinese exports to the US plunged 21% year-on-year amid a wave of new tariffs targeting electronics, metals, and machinery. Imports from the US also declined 13.8%, though less steeply, aided by continued purchases of agricultural products and energy. For the January–April period, China's cumulative trade surplus reached USD 368.8 billion. Within that, the surplus with the US stood at USD 97.07 billion, with bilateral trade volumes shrinking—exports down 2.5% and imports falling 4.7%—highlighting the impact of tit-for-tat tariffs and growing supply chain fragmentation.
Looking ahead, analysts caution that the sustainability of China's trade performance will depend heavily on the outcome of renewed US-China trade negotiations set to resume this weekend in Switzerland. While the current surplus may provide a temporary boost to headline GDP growth, the underlying weakness in imports and the steep drop in US-bound exports underscore the challenges Beijing faces in maintaining external balance amid rising global protectionism and uneven domestic recovery. Moreover, any escalation in trade friction could weigh further on China's manufacturing and export-driven sectors, adding pressure on policymakers to deploy additional fiscal and monetary support in the coming months.
