New orders for manufactured durable goods in the United States surged by 9.2% month-over-month to $315.7 billion in March 2025, marking the third straight month of gains and significantly outperforming market expectations of a modest 2% increase.
US durable goods orders soar
The unexpected jump was fueled largely by a surge in demand for commercial aircraft, reflecting strong activity in the transportation sector. Transportation equipment orders rose by a substantial 27%, with nondefense aircraft and parts skyrocketing by 139%, likely boosted by a wave of new contracts from major airlines and fleet renewal initiatives. Motor vehicles and parts also contributed with a more modest, yet solid, 2.3% increase.
Excluding the often-volatile transportation category, however, new orders were nearly flat, suggesting that the broader manufacturing recovery remains uneven. This indicates that while headline figures are buoyed by big-ticket items, underlying demand across other sectors is more restrained.
Elsewhere, gains were noted in several key segments of the industrial economy. Orders for capital goods surged 24.3%, led by a 29.4% increase in nondefense capital goods, a sign that businesses may be cautiously ramping up investment despite macroeconomic headwinds. Primary metals (+0.7%), fabricated metal products (+0.2%), and machinery (+0.1%) all posted slight gains, hinting at some stabilization in the core manufacturing base.
Orders for computers and electronic products declined
On the downside, orders for computers and electronic products declined by 1.2%, continuing a trend of weaker tech equipment investment that some analysts attribute to ongoing supply chain recalibrations and corporate belt-tightening amid higher borrowing costs.
Meanwhile, a critical measure of business investment—non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft—ticked up by just 0.1% in March. While this represents a rebound from the 0.3% drop in February, it fell short of market expectations for a 0.2% rise. The tepid increase highlights ongoing caution among firms in committing to new long-term capital expenditures, likely reflecting uncertainty around interest rate policy, global demand conditions, and geopolitical tensions.
Overall, while the headline numbers point to robust activity driven by large transportation contracts, the broader picture suggests a manufacturing sector still navigating a complex landscape of uneven demand and cautious investment.
